Prices 5 times since March tested support levels and formed triangle. From the end of June Brent broke the upper line and formed the steep uptrend and stopped near 200 days daily MA. Now it corrects to the trendline. Should it rebound from the upper side of the triangle and form a smoother uptrend or try to test the support is the main question.
As usual, Russian local corp bonds are less sensitive to momentum than sovs (OFZ). On price charts you can see that in spite of correction in OFZ corp index moved less. Investors should be more careful in local corps selection paying more attention to spread values.
Last three weeks MICEX is in a uncommon narrow range. Currently it is near significant support and resistance levels. The situation is not yet clear. You may lock some profit in papers that have made already a good performance. Definitely it is not a time to increase longs. But there is no sense to significantly reduce the portfolio size. Be ready for this action...
As we can see, the divergence may be over if the volume of this week goes high enough. Also the index is just above the downtrend line - its new support level. Thus, it's time to carefully begin add to long positions. Be aware the resistance level at 1620 - there you can fix some of your longs.
Seems like it is ready for correction - divergence on volumes. If the divergence will continue, good levels to open short: 1615-1620 or RSI at an overbought area. Also It makes sense to try go short at breaking down the 50% between 1620 and 1270 (1445). Currently it is better not to increase long positions.
