Triangle forming in ES 1/4h timeframe. Could see this breaking out either way since we are quite extended to the downside (on daily) and hovering over major support level.
Following yesterday's selloff — a beautiful h&s top on hourly (image below) — oil finds itself stuck in tight range between 20 and 50 daily sma's. Could be trade either way on breakout. Hopefully it waits until after inventory numbers at10:30 am EST.
ES1! also has a rising wedge on hourly. Also a quadruple bearish divergence between price and RSI. Looking for short trade on breakdown through the bottom of the wedge.
Nice bull moves in S&P and Nasdaq today, but Russell not joining in the party. Last few hourly bars here showing bulls trying to defend support but bears keep pushing down. I like this for an afternoon short play if market sells off.
Next stop 50-day sma? Yesterday's overshoot of the 20-sma was good for a small bounce trade; however, shorting that bounce would have definitely been a better trade! I'll be watching the 92 area (50-day and gap fill from late February) for a sign of buyers stepping in.
Around 6:30 am EST something moved markets. ES tagged its 20-day sma and then sold off. This is an important level. Bulls will want to close over it to gain some traction. If successful, next resistance is 50-sma weekly at 4409. Bears will want to see this sold (good start) in hopes of a push lower through recent lows. Should be an interesting session.
Hourly Chart:
Spent the day sitting on 20 ema with attempts to lift off meet with resistance. Low risk short opportunity here as it has slipped under the ema that is now acting as resistance.
While S&P and Nasdaq futures have fallen after open, the Russell 2k futures are holding. It's a mess but based on action alone could be a long trade here.
