iamajeya

iamajeya

MACD is really high up, the only way seems to be down. Vix fix has done 3 towers, very rarely it does 4.

iamajeya

Fundamentally this pair should go higher till US elections, and then fall to multi-year lows. For right now, the volume (as noted in Volume Profile is drying up for this range. Whcih means a reversal to mean is imminent. Target 1.0643

iamajeya

Too many shorts piled on. Minor squeeze at the 200 Day MA.

iamajeya

Looking at Weekly indicators, one can deduce that long term bearish targets are 42.79 39.76 36.73 33.70 After a minor reversal (Bump) as indicated in my previous Idea, I believe Oil is headed for at-least the 36.73 level over the next 3 weeks.

iamajeya

Target on my previous idea reached successfully. If you were following me, then you would have taken half of your profit on target #1 and now take the other half. There is further possible downside to $38 and even lower in oil. However Oil is creating a falling wedge and lower volumes are signaling a textbook reversal. Wait for breakout to execute this trade.

iamajeya

Watch the Next 50 cents very carefully. Oil needs to make lower lows and stay in the band. Right now all forces are pointing South Oil continues to go down on high volume. MA 50 (Red line) is below MA 200 (Grey line) China is just starting to end it's massive strategic reserve buying Iran is doubling it's production US production has gone up ...

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Reasons: #1 - volume completely dries up at 51-52 #2 - Point of control is at 45 #3 - Triple top formation in progress #4 - Consolidation has not completed in the industry #5 - Canadian oil is starting to come online. Fully online by mid July #6 - Expected GDP revisions for Low growth in China and Euro zone #7 - 3 major lines of resistance in the next 1.5 dollars...

iamajeya

JCP has done fake double bottoms before on 2013-10 and 2014-02 A new such Fake bottom is developing. Also is the start of an Elliott Wave impulse cycle. Note however how the Volume profile is heavily titled to downside and how volume practically vanishes on top. Fundamentally, they are trying a few new things and throwing a lot of things on the wall to see what...

iamajeya

Classic Head and Shoulder formation. AAP was in a great business till a) Starboard took hold of the board, and b) Their market started disappearing to online retailers. c) Newer E-cars require much less of this d) Their inventory and margin issues are still unresolved. And these are tough things to resolve. You either get them right from beginning (Walmart,...

iamajeya

Forming a wedge. Wedges break at 60% point (ish) and after at-least 5 moves in the wedge.

iamajeya

OIL has bearish divergence at D chart. Weekly has a bit of a bullish bias but it's Stoch is overbought. Tomorrow will be a decisive day for WTI, if it breaks 618 Fibonacci retracement with force then we can think that this rally has some steam, else it's just a short covering rally and OIL heads to 1.618 projection of previous Peak-Trough

iamajeya

Fib ABCDE pattern on bearish flag formation Fib time periods in blue Profit Targets will be dictated once Fib ABCDE is completed

iamajeya

Is it time to invest in India ? Here's an example of Excel India fund (CAD denominated in Yellow) vs. the SENSEX (in Blue) vs INRCAD (in RED) and an average of SENSEX & CADINR (in Pink). Despite Indian Index moving up, the (seemingly temporary) strength in Canadian dollar is driving the price of EGI-UN (Excel India) down. On an average it has an upward bias...

iamajeya

Green Arrows at bottom are bullish forecast, red arrows are bearish. This is purely technical, I recommend to wait for Doha to see what happens.

iamajeya

A comparison of USOIL vs DWTI (inverse - please note 1/DWTI as the symbol) vs UWTI. If your broker allows shorting DWTI (mine does not .. it sucks !!), then you will be way ahead.

iamajeya

Going short. Targets on Graph - 36.5, 35.6 and 32. Correction : First Target should read 39.6

iamajeya

Watching MACD, STOCH and SQZMON to get a signal

iamajeya

USDCAD cut MA8 in a bullish manner. Given strength in USDollar Index (in blue) and drop in USOIL (in Red) and the strength of this momentum. Possible reversal in the last 3 months trend. Fundamentals concur - Look at my post about excess OIL inventory buildup. Till that Glut is over, the long term direction for CAD will be down except for weakness in US...