Let's take a look at the daily chart on the SPX, especially the VI (Vortex Indicator). The last time the it crossed over was back in Feb 24, from which SPX lost 1000 pts within a course of one month. The other confirmation of this downside move is the negative VI crossing above the moving average, as it did on Feb 26, and the RSI bottomed out at 20. Let's look at...
Small caps have not been as enthusiastic about the rally as tech and SPX in the run up since March. We see that it's been making lower lows and lower highs since August 11 peak, and RSI has been showing continuing weakness on the daily chart. If SPX is going to have a meaningful sustainable rally, it's going to need the small caps and financial sector to follow...
A quick one here - SPX broke below the channel it's been in since September 4th, may try to retrace to the 3315 channel support level near term. Failure to move higher may mean that we revisit 3000 levels on the SPX. It did recover half of the losses on Monday, but right now futures are slightly in the red. See how the futures sessions develops until market open....
Quick view of the monthly - we can see a big megaphone pattern that has been developing here. Now this by no means is a sure topping pattern, but if you look at the technical indicators, they all seem to be pointing downward, and indicate that the market is running our of steam and is poised for a fall. Of course the timing is not certain - it can ride up that...
$SPX is in a channel, but technical indicators seem to favor some consolidation here. If at the end of today's session the channel holds, there should be more movement downward in the channel, but if it manages to break outside of the channel, then it may retest 3420 level. Otherwise, lower lows around 3280-90 area as it bounces in the channel for the next few sessions.
Similar to the small caps Financials have had a less enthusiastic rally compared to tech and while they have also rallied from the March lows, the uptrend seems to have broken and is heading likely downward. Look for financials and small caps to be a drag on any rallies that the markets may make in the coming days.
Quick look at the small caps - RUT hasn't been as enthusiastic as the SPX and the Nasdaq. We see that, while it's had its own run since the March bounce, this upward trend line has been broken below in the past few sessions. Next major support is 1450 area. As i've mentioned in my previous post, look to small caps and financials to act as a drag to any bull...
Been a while since i posted - life stuff :) I think it's fair to say that given all the things that are going around in the US and the rest of the world, the stock market, particularly the tech driven Nasdaq has been "over-exuberant", getting to and fairly swiftly breaking above to new all time highs on the SPX. While market participants had all signs to say that...
Price has been moving sideways, unable to get above resistance level. RSI and falling, VI crossing to the negative.
SPX has had a great run from the "bottom" of the corona virus market drop, to many surprisingly so. While there may be fundamental and global economic, fed stimulated reasons for this, let's take a look at the technicals and see if this momentum can hold. On the 4 hour chart we see that SPX is topping out and running out of steam; while the price moved higher in...
We're coming in to some points of resistance here. Bonds yield lower, oil lower. While daily chart shows a bottoming process, in the near term, do we have enough to move higher, or are we looking to retest recent lows and find keep looking for that near term bottom? Technicals seem to be hesitant despite today's "quiet rally", but who knows that headlines will...
While this week finally showed some buyers come in as the $2T recovery bill passes congress, SPX appears to be looking to rollover on the hourly charts. SPX has retraced back to the long term trendline at 2540, and while it seemed for a moment today that it may finish the week above that level, late selling has put it right smack on it, as markets reassess the...
Just a quick charting on BTCUSD - while it remains above the current trendline, keep eye on VI and RSI momentum, which at the moment it seems to be losing some steam. Break below the current trendline may mean revisiting 5538 near term.
While we had initial jobless claims that quadruple the last highest record (3.2 million), markets are higher on hopes of additional stimulus. Looking at the one hour chart on the SPX, this three day move higher may be stalling out. While the VI momentum and moving average remains on a higher trajectory, watch out for it to possibly cross in the next few hours,...
SPX ended the week in its lowest levels with a poor close on Friday. But technical indicators may be showing that a sideways-bottom may be forming as we get more sell exhaustion and buyers nibble on the hopes that things will turn itself around. As you can see from the chart a few things need to happen here. One is that the RSI needs to break above its current...
A major fib line. RSI does seem to indicate oversold conditions and signs of consolidation. Will what the white house says right now have any effect... i doubt it. But keep eyes on the technicals and try to ignore the headlines and the noise. Stay healthy everyone.
We've been on a 11 year bull run. As seen on this chart, any sizable downturn in SPX has consistently bounced off of the 11 year uptrend line, most recently, back in Dec. 2018. As we see these downturns, you can notice that the range in RSI, as well as price, has become wider and deeper with each peak and troth, as the bull run and cycle becomes long in the tooth...
Financials yesterday did very well and rallied almost 6% by end of the day. While XLF is near a support level and has bounced off of its Monday lows, in order for a meaningful move higher, i feel that it needs to consolidate and build momentum. See example in yellow box back in Aug 2019, where it consolidated to pushed higher after a ~10% fall. I'd like to see...