About meTrading and managing a team of very experienced discretionary FX traders within a private company. Formerly a spot FX trader with major global banks. My views are meant for position taking trades over a period of a few days, even a few weeks.
The down trend in AUDJPY from 89.00 level saw a technical rebound to 82.30 last week.
It has met with a down trend channel resistance line as shown.
There are other technical patterns, indicators, wave counts which I see as bearish. But I am just presenting a very simplified chart here.
In view of deepening US-China trade war, which is also spreading to involve...
There is potentially a big, multi-week down trend in USD/CAD.
Immediate and key supports are at 1.3050 and 1.2950.
Above 1.3180 negates the call.
Once 1.2950 breaks, USD/CAD is going to fall off the cliff.
Many other catalysts are aligning to support this view:
potential resolution to NAFTA, increase chance of a BOC rate hike after some strong data, continued up...
In my last posting on USDJPY a few days ago, I had counted that 105.55 could be the end of the major correction from 125.70. If true, then 105.55 would be a major bottom from which a big, long term rally would begin.
The price action and chart pattern after 105.55 have been supportive of my wave count. This is especially so last Friday, when USDJPY only dip to...
I have always viewed that EURUSD is trading a big triangular range between 1.0500-1.1700, which consists of waves(A)(B)(C)(D)(E). This view is still valid. In my previous post a couple of weeks ago, I had prematurely labelled the high at 1.1465 as wave(C) and turned bearish when it started to weaken. I was wrong. As it turned out, it did another up move to...
I am counting GBPUSD as a wave(5) down move from wave(4) at 1.5500.
Within this wave(5), it consists of waves<1><2><3><4><5>. So far, the low of 1.3830 was wave<3>. The rally to 1.4770 was wave<4>. This wave<4> rebound was very nice as it traced out a very clear waves-a-b-c pattern. Also, there was a very bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern on the day...
In my last posting, when USDJPY was around 111.50, I had assumed that 107.60 was already the major wave(4) bottom from which the big wave(5) rally started. But I was wrong! The break below 107.60 negated that wave count. Indeed, that down move was very sharp.
My current preferred count is that 107.60 was only wave-iii and 111.90 was only wave-iv of wave<5>. This...
Please refer to my last few postings on USDJPY to get an idea where I am coming from.
Before this week, I had regarded the short term rally from 107.60 as just a technical rebound before one more final fall to the long term target/support at 107.00-30. But this current sharp rally on Friday (22 April), resulting in very bullish Daily and Weekly bars, tells me...
After hitting the low of 107.63, it has consolidated upwards to a high of 109.70 and is now in between.
I believe 107.63 was a wave<3> low, and it is now doing a wave<4> correction which can come in a variety of wave counts and patterns.
Currently, my preferred count is this wave<4> comes in the form of waves, of which 109.70 was wave and a sharp fall to 107.80...
My reading of the Daily chart tells me that since the low of 1.0460 in March 2015, EURUSD has been tracing out a large contracting triangle pattern with 5 corrective waves (or legs) waves(A)(B)(C)(D)(E).
It has done wave(A) up to 1.1720, wave(B) down to 1.0515. I believe wave(C) up has finished at 1.1465 recently. If correct, then it is now on wave(D), which...
This is a continuation of my USDJPY analysis which I posted here on 10 Apr 2016. Readers should read the 3 charts I posted on 10 Apr 2016, to better understand and ensure the consistency of my analysis.
Last week, I had made a long term call for an imminent major bottom in USDJPY at the 107.00-107.30 level. I had expected it could be achieved as soon as last...
This third chart shows more details of the wave structure of wave(4) from the June 2015 wave(3) peak of 125.80 down.
Based on the price movements, there can be a variety of ways to label the waves. I have chosen the wave counts as shown to be my most preferred count. Essentially, from 125.80, there was wave(A) to 116.00, wave(B) rebound to 121.60 from which...
This second chart of USDJPY shows its movements from 2012 to 2016 so far.
A basic tenet of technical analysis is that "history repeats itself". My hypothesis is that USDJPY moves in 2012-2016 are similar to its moves in 1995-1997. The current down move in USDJPY will end at around 107.00-30, from which it shall reverse up strongly in coming months to well above...
Since peaking at 125.80 in June 2015, USDJPY has fallen to a low of 107.70 last week. The fall accelerated upon the break of the key psychological level of 110.00. Many traders (and maybe central bank officials too) are asking "where could be the bottom for USDJPY this round?"
This is the first of 3 charts which I use to support my call for a major bottom in...
