euphoricMeerka49790

euphoricMeerka49790

The entire rally since October 2022 has been based on the rapid depletion of the Fed's reverse repo. When the RR drains rapidly, the money flows directly into the stock market. When the RR gains, it precurses a drop in the stock market. At each pivot point the stock market has followed suit. We just had the most recent pivot on March 15th through today adding...

euphoricMeerka49790

The entire rally since October 2022 has been based on the rapid depletion of the Fed's reverse repo. When the RR drains rapidly, the money flows directly into the stock market. When the RR gains, it precurses a drop in the stock market. At each pivot point the stock market has followed suit. We just had the most recent pivot on March 15th through today adding...

euphoricMeerka49790 Updated 

Based on the chart analysis - our two options both result in the same location. If we are bullish on rates, then rates will increase and see heavy resistance on the upper side. On the same right, if we drop lower, we will see heavy resistance there as well. My expectation is that rates are the same for the immediate future.

euphoricMeerka49790 Updated 

Fibonnaci Circles, which represent areas in which resistances are likely to occur reverberate through time. The fib circle from the low of 2020 to the high of 2021 - and high of 2021 to low of 2022 show that our current price in the $620s is at a double resistance from both. This could result in a halt to the rise and likely a slow grind lower from here. It could...

euphoricMeerka49790

The 10yr has taken a break in the past couple days off it's highs. This is normal but and happens regularly in the relentless overall path upwards in rates. The Fed has made all the signals that they are blind to the supply and demand issues of treasuries and willing to allow the market to do what it will as long as it results in less inflation. Chairman Powell in...

euphoricMeerka49790

Oil has been patient for the past week or so and is in line for a bounce back to recent highs at around $90-92 over the next week or so. I am expecting some resistance and then a quick drop based on the Fibonacci circle drawn on recent most recent high and lows. The price is currently at the bottom of the circle which encounters the most resistance and there is a...

euphoricMeerka49790

Gann Fan bottom which originates from the March 2020 lows will provide a support for falling further. Additionally the Fibonacci Circle's bottom provides support, with the 200 day sitting there as well. There's a lot of reason to expect a bounce here temporarily. I don't think it'll last since the macro environment is not improving much. An additional fall to the...

euphoricMeerka49790 Updated 

GLD had a nice pop this week, but overall trend and positioning remains downside. Expecting a drift lower toward 175's put support before bouncing after 9/22 expiration toward 180+ into mid-October expiration. Follows the Gann Fan perfectly.

euphoricMeerka49790

This 2/1 Gann Fan line has been in existence since 1981 and is about to be tested. For those that don't use gann fans - the 2/1 line is typically associated with a large pop. The 10 yr is already on a tear and this could result in a very fast pop to 5% in the coming weeks.

euphoricMeerka49790 Updated 

Resistances are forming in NASDAQ:NVDA shown in the Gann Fan and Fib Circles. Looking for a pullback through the end of October / Range bound in this 450-500 range. Look for a November through earnings push higher to new highs.

euphoricMeerka49790 Updated 

No resistance in the near term two weeks leading into the Fed Meeting, we should continue to rise into the Gann Fan resistance line as shown. But we are nearing a resistance of a Fibonacci Circle which should provide resistance to drop. Along with the potentially 0% chance of a September rate hike, this could the next drop.

euphoricMeerka49790 Updated 

NFLX has a significant amount of options GEX showing 380 in October, I expect the stock to continue it's downturn, perhaps with some fluctuation through October.

euphoricMeerka49790 Updated 

AAPL continuing to move the market lower. However it shouldn't move much lower than 170 over the next 30 days based on options data as of this post.

euphoricMeerka49790 Updated 

Current trend and following the Gann Fan, the stock is continuing a longer trend lower. Options data are showing a massive $85 magnet for this week and eventually it shifts to $80 in October. There is room for a rally end of September, but not long term.

euphoricMeerka49790 Updated 

TLT has seen nothing but red for months - that won't end as it continues to fall and should hit 90 in the next month. This could trigger a credit event or perhaps the data starts coming around that shows the Fed's October meeting will be dovish and slowly return the price toward 98-100 by February.

euphoricMeerka49790 Updated 

The AMEX:KRE has performed remarkably well since the lows in May. But mounting issues with rates and the Fed not showing signs of dropping rates will continue to prove the index needs to go lower. Options data suggests strong Put pressure into the end of the month at $42 where lower strike prices open by Oct expiration at $40 with strong open interest. If rates...

euphoricMeerka49790

There's actually a handle-cup formation going back to last year. The gann fans show the path the price action is following - and that's up. Likely another push to $100 in the coming weeks.

euphoricMeerka49790

Fib Circles and Gann Fan showing resistance and pressure downward for the next two months before a new opportunity to breakout will occur into the end of the year before meeting new resistance.