During one of the greatest melt ups in history, GME has been in significant decline, and it also has clearly formed a lower high on March 10 and failed to surpass that high. Finally, CMF during that run-up and now is negative. This thing is going down. I'm thinking this has become the Volkswagen or Pets.com of our bubble era, and we've already had our second act. ...
Green shows a Friday that provided positive returns Yellow shows a Friday that provided negative returns but in a downtrend Red shows a Friday that provided negative returns but in an uptrend Recent history is on your side: a 1-day DTE options play is likely to pay off given current conditions. In addition, SPY has broken a strong upward trend line and...
When Bears like me start making charts like this, maybe we are getting a big correction soon. LOL. Or maybe I'm just manipulating the market. Either way, the symmetry in this chart is interesting and suggests that the S&P 500 could double in the next 12 months. Is it likely? No. The thing about trajectories is they are meant to be broken. But the current...
Bears are still alive? Well, I kinda sorta warned of this meltup in "SPY: Pop and Drop" linked below, or at least half of it (the 4090 variety, not the 4140 variety LOL). And no, I'm not saying *this* is the top, unlike those other bears who call a top every week. All I'm saying is there is far more downside than upside at this time, so trade accordingly. I've...
This is pretty much an automatic trade; old guard alts always pump suddenly but regress long-term vs BTC. It's like having contango in your favor (hello USO shorts). The problem with shorting alts is the pumps can go on for some time and break you unless you're only shorting with a small % of your account and on low leverage (5x or less). The other problem is...
Regression channels are a very powerful tool for entry and exit points on assets. Unlike human-drawn lines and channels, they are not subject to biases and attempts to fit price behavior into questionable systems like Elliot's Wave. I decided to use /VX (Current Continuous) rather than spot VIX since /VX is actually what's used to settle your options on VIX (as...
When you fail your upward channel and plummet more than two standard deviations in the greatest bull market of all time, that can't be good for your long term prospects. I have an algorithm that pulls out these channel backtest stocks as they happen and shorts them. Let's see how well this does.
I don't care what your fundamentals take is on this company, but this chart looks ugly, and we've failed our 90 day channel and also failed on backtests. Short with confidence. Let the computer do the work for you.
I've developed a bearish algorithm/screener that screens for stocks with identified selling pressure / trend followed by a dead cat bounce that is likely to fail - which we will attempt to short. I'm trying to combine trend following and VFI trading principles for the coming bear market. Components: 1. 200 EMA: below current market price (this is so we don't get...
I've developed a bearish algorithm/screener that screens for stocks with identified selling pressure / trend followed by a dead cat bounce that is likely to fail - which we will attempt to short. I'm trying to combine trend following and VFI trading principles for the coming bear market. Components: 1. 200 EMA: below current market price (this is so we don't...
VRNT has fallen below the 50 day EMA and is retesting it on low volume and weak volume-based indicators (CMF, MFI, etc); it is a classic short from here with the SPY possibly topping soon.
I've developed a bearish algorithm/screener that screens for stocks with identified selling pressure / trend followed by a dead cat bounce that is likely to fail - which we will attempt to short. I'm trying to combine trend following and VFI trading principles for the coming bear market. Components: 1. 200 EMA: below current market price (this is so we don't get...
ARKK has once again bounced off the 200 Day EMA and appears headed towards a retest of the 21 Day EMA. Nevertheless, volume-based indicators remain weak, so a re-short from around 120 could be an excellent play with a target of 93 hopefully this time.
SPY had every opportunity to make a new high today to achieve target #1 (4050-4100) but faded into the close while VIX increased even as SPY rose. IWM and QQQ are also both far off previous highs, and 10 year yields rose over 1.7% again. The conventional wisdom is that QQQ will follow SPY to new highs, but after a relatively weak bounce off the regression channel...
It's always better to consider both sides prior to placing a trade. Previously, we laid out a short scenario for the current pattern as a continuation pattern: (1) a break of the lower regression trendline or (2) a "breakout" on weak volume. Here's the counterpoint: we have formed what could look like an Inverse Head and Shoulders - which is a reversal pattern...
I've developed a bearish algorithm/screener that screens for stocks with identified selling pressure / trend followed by a dead cat bounce that is likely to fail - which we will attempt to short. I'm trying to combine trend following and VFI trading principles for the coming bear market. Components: 1. 200 EMA: below current market price (this is so we don't get...
Long term, divergence continues on the Chaikin Money Flow and the Volume Flow (VFI) despite SPY nearly reaching all time highs today. We warned that the dip early last week was not sustainable (see "Warning: Bears too Gleeful" below). This idea is officially "neutral" since it is neither a great place to long or short SPY or even garbage (where were you last...
RTY has hit a key fib band level from which previous rebounds have occurred. The RSI is also at a level from which recent previous rebounds have occurred. If ES holds 3880 in the Globex, I’m going long. There's always the danger of a vertical drop given how full of trash (GME, AMC, PLUG, various SPACs) this index has become.