(Possible) temporary top looks in. Bulls (in green) looking at zigzag to complete wave 4. Bears (in red) looking for formal impulse wave down.
Primary bull count has us on wave 4 of iii of (iii) of V. Anticipated bottom 5116.25-5199.25 before move back up towards 5450-5550. Primary bear count has top in, (b) of IV complete, (c) would be impulse with bottom expected 2979-3300.
Entire history of NYA. Looking for wave B of primary wave 4 (expanded flat) to top out soon, near channel trendline, looking for wave C to bottom out below 12000 but not go below 10387.1680 (top of wave 1).
Bull vs. bear counts for ES1!. Bull count has ES1! in wave 5 of 3 of 3 of 3 of 5. Wave 5 should (or has already) complete below 5443.75, with expected pullback towards 5100-5200 area. Bear count has ES1! in wave 5 of C of Y of B, with market top below 5443.75 and wave C of primary wave 4 incoming (bottom projected below October 2022 low, above 3000).
Bullish count (in green) has us working on wave 5 of 3 of 3 of 3. Bear count (in red) has us completing wave 5 of C of Y of B. Both counts have upper limit of 5443.75 for validity. Bullish count would have wave 4 of 3 of 3 complete in the 5100-5200 area. Bearish count is looking for a market top.
Looking for B wave of primary wave 4 to top out as it gets closer to the upper bound of the parallel channel, C wave to complete in the 11000-12000 area and stay above 10387.1680
Primary bear count has wave C at or near completion, with upper limit of 5443.75 (white line) for the count to be valid. This would complete the B wave of an expanded flat that started January 2022.
My bullish primary has SPX working on wave 5 of 3 of 3 of 3. I expect this wave to top out before 5360.09, with a retracement back to 5100 level.
My bullish primary has BTCUSD completing wave 4 of 3 of 3, looking for wave 5 of 3 of 3 to terminate between 96358.06 and 99129.29.
Bullish count (in green) would have us working on a wave 4 down towards the 5000 level. Bearish count would have us either working on one final five wave impulse up or a truncated finish (top is in) and dramatic move downward. Key support is 5157.
Price action from 8 and 11 March looks corrective. If confirmed, I'm looking for daily higher-high to go no higher than 5394.75. Key supports are 4999.50 and 5129.50.
Daily higher-high from last post completed. Green count has ES1! completing five-wave impulse off October 2023 low of 4236.25. Red count has ES1! needing one more daily higher-low and higher-high to complete what I'm interpreting as a C-wave and likely market top.
I think the NYSE Composite Index best shows where I think equities are at and where I think they are going. Primary wave 1 ended in October 2007, wave 2 in March 2009, and wave 3 in January 2022. Wave 2 is a zigzag that lasted 511 days and resulted in a 59.74% drop. Wave 4 should be any corrective structure other than a zigzag. It has been 784 days since January...
The only bearish case I can make for BTCUSD at the moment. On the left, pitchfork drawn from ATL/Nov 2021 high/Nov 2022 low showing profit taking/resistance at .25, .5, and .75 areas (circled areas), with last stop in the 76k-80k area. On the right, you can see price action on log scale, where the count doesn't look as ridiculous. Primary wave 4 ends up being an...
Slightly altered count, which I think fits better with RSI and EW counts on smaller time scales. Looking for higher highs on daily, key levels 5059.25 and 4936.50.
We have three complete impulse waves off October 2023 low of 4173.25. If these three waves are themselves to complete a primary impulse wave up, then I would expect a correction to begin soon, with price not going above 5301. If there is more impulsive price action coming, then something else (not necessarily bullish) is going on. Key support levels are 4936.50...
Entire history of SPX. Within a primary impulsive wave structure, wave 2s seem to be relatively quick ABC zigzags and wave 4s tend to be drawn out/complicated flats, triangles, or double-threes. The first completed impulse ended in 1929, the second in 1987, and the third in 2007. It is possible that we are in wave 5 of the fourth complete impulse, with my SPX...
It looks like ES1! is working on a third impulse wave up from October 2023 low. Bullish scenario (green) would have this third wave up complete a full impulse wave off low of 4173.25. Bearish scenario (red) would have this third impulse up be the second impulse of a C wave, with an additional impulse needed to complete the C.