culbert425

culbert425

I am surprised by BTC not filling in the wick to ~$42k. It acted to frustrate everyone maximally, noted. So Q12022 is where we find out what's what. Since retail is out of the BTC market, will institutional allocations change the character of the market with overwhelming buying pressure? We will know very soon. It's the last narrative that will happen...

culbert425

Previously, I've stated that we have two major drivers of BTC price (and of course whatever the secondary effect of BTC price change is on all other crypto in general): 1. BTC is inversely proportional to the DXY 2. BTC is proportional to the 10 Year Treasury yield rate. The DXY drives BTC price because, as we now know, the lion's share of BTC is...

culbert425 Updated 

This is playing out well to the downside. We just pierced the retrace 0.5 Fib. Ahead we have the 0.618 @ $812 and 0.786 @ $694. We have filled the first gap, and are headed to gaps 2 and 3 as our story has played out in my previous posts. We have also fallen out of and back checked the yellow downtrend channel. The purple line is long term bull trend support,...

culbert425

MATIC is about to breakout and challenge resistance levels... here are the ones I see: 2.72 - Previous ATH/ price discovery 2.85 - Uptrend 3.61 - Uptrend 4.35 - 1.618 Fib from genesis to 1.0 @ previous ATH MATIC is a beautiful beast benefitting both from L2 on ETH and in its own right as a competing layer 1 (SOL, AVAX, etc.) 2022 should be a stellar year...

culbert425

Technically: - we have a higher high - we have a higher low - we successfully broke out and back tested the upper bound of or downtrend channel (red) - we broke out of our down trending RSI (4hr and daily) But We don't yet look good on the daily and we still don't have a character change in volume (in my opinion). We didn't touch $50k before sputtering. I am not...

culbert425

We have: - a higher low - a breach of the major downtrend channel - A "W" looking bottom formation - major breach of of a down trending RSI resistance line We don't have: - a successful back test yet - a higher high (back side of the W) - a character change in volume This will probably turn back around and look for support quickly. It's important where that...

culbert425

We may be having a small breakout within our downtrend. If it succeeds, I'd expect a rise and rejection off the $48,350 line. If it fails, seems a good opportunity to head on down to $44k.

culbert425

The trend is your friend until the end, which is just around the bend. Here's a view of the road we are currently on. Violent detour? always possible. I still think your $42000 LOs are good.

culbert425 Updated 

LINK is breaking out of a 13 month downtrend. This, of course, is terrible news as a harbinger of a bear market. The vulture takes flight.

culbert425

AVAX does not care what anything else is doing. Up fibs, down fibs... strength in uncertainty. AVAX looks like its about fill the hole left by DOT and ADA and snub up to SOL.

culbert425

I don't see where new buyers are coming from until the new year (institutional allocations). Bears are in control because they have more BTC right now so they can sell down. Too many PlanB/EoY parabolic rally folks got liquidated and have little money left. Institutions are net sellers at EoY, typically. Enthusiasm is waning, sentiment still has room to...

culbert425 Updated 

Pre-market shows the (top) gap is/will be essentially filled. There are two other gaps I see. My LO's are sitting at $823. Because I think between now and EoY we will retrace to the 0.618, filling both the remaining gaps. $823 gives me a little room for error and meets my personal price target since selling at $1234. It'd be nice to see a healthy down...

culbert425

Which way goes it? Turns out, The Europeans are printing twice as much as we are. As much as the dollar doesn't deserve it, it may show strength just based on being the least terrible. Note the "like a boss" W bottom formation Dec 2020 -May 2021... just enough time for BTC to go crazy. At the moment, we have created a pristine double-top on the DXY.

culbert425

Just a pitchfork to consider in your trading scheme.

culbert425

From global bottom (0.4 ish) to the 1.618 fib. Neat.

culbert425

It's nice to see a little boost. Coming with it is plenty of CT positivism and "the bottom is in". I can't say it isn't, but, I can say, at a glance, we are forming a bearish wedge continuation pattern on the hourly, It's obvious on the 4 hour as well.

culbert425

Patience paid off. The 0.382 @ $976 has been back checked and should now be overhead resistance. LO's at the 0.5 Fib @ $894 have a high chance of fill. LO's at the 0.618 @ $811 have a medium/low chance of fill. LO's at the 0.786 @ $694 have a low chance of fill. Breaking down below the gray line ($880-ish) would not be favorable as it is the bull market...

culbert425

A successful back test here will be a small victory. Perhaps volume comes in today, but right now its just not a resurgence.