We look to short GBPUSD at 1.4360.
Technical View:
-> Symmetric Triangle resistance.
Fundamental View:
1) Carney speech today will be neutral to dovish pointing the Brexit Risks
2) Brexit dominate the currency view
3) We may have some fluctuation on Wage growth data tomorrow and Retail sales but we remain bearish with strong resistance 1.44
1) After a good NFP we should expect a stronger dollar in medium term
2) EURUSD is a the high of the range.
3) The European fundamentals are not justify the rise in EUR.
This week we are looking to sell EURUSD with first target 1.1320 and longer target 1.1280.
1) BREXIT is still in place & we don't have any improvement in Brexit Polls
2) Brexit weights on all the other macroeconomic indicators of UK economy. The latest Current Account data widdening beyond expectations.
3) Dollar has shown its potential weakness and we should bounce from this lows.
We will keep selling Pound with first target 1.4250 and second 1,4150....
We will look to sell GBPUSD.
1) Brexit and political uncertainty is rising in UK
2) The move up after FED meeting and Yellens comments was due to dollar weakness.
3) Over all Dollar will remain Strong.
4) Risk for the trade: If USD remain weak and commodities supported.
Sell for today.
1) Today we expect the service PMI to have a lower reading.
2) Data from US will remain supportive.
3) EURGBP rate bounce from support 0.77.
The week ahead ( 15-19 FEB).
1) Brexit: The 18/19 Feb EU Summit on the renegotiation of UK's terms of membership will be the major focus for GBP.
2) Apart from the Brexit we have CPI yoy on Tue that is expected better than previous and adding with average earnings and unemployment rate expectations we should see a bullish bias for pound.
3) From Dollar...
We would look to buy usdcad if breaks above 1,3780 since the fundamental picture from Canada is not encouranging and oil will continue to remain at these low levels.
