Because of contango, patterns on UVXY are hard to read because it is a bit like a fun house mirror - you get a completely warped and distorted view of supply / demand based price movement. But when contango slows down, the distortion clears a bit. Last August the market was coming off of a depressed VIX (it was in the 10s) and volatility crept back in. On your...
I use the VIX / VXV ratio to monitor VIX futures for contango/backwardation. A peculiar thing has been happening over the last 2 weeks on this admittedly ugly (but it looks great on a 4k mounted in my office) chart. VIX has been rising slowly over last 3 weeks and, more substantively, the VIX/VXV ratio has been rising too. As a result of that ratio rising, long...
Chart says it all - Rising wedge with price now in internal compression channel coupled with a divergent, falling RSI. Will be paying a visit to 31 soon without divine intervention.
Previously posted twice on American Tower, both pointing to short opportunities in the price channel AMT has been in. Well the price behavior is changing and anticipation of earnings may be the catalyst. Note the pops AMT has had at the last 4 earnings reports? Each a long green candle. Also notice that AMT has not visited the bottom of the price channel two...
The VVIX (known as the "VIX of the VIX") makes its way down to under 77, watch for the VIX to go back under 12.50 like it did last summer. Is that a guarantee? Well - remember that VVIX measures the volatility of the VIX. If the VIX is getting less and less volatile (as the VVIX channel clearly shows it is) then one can expect that fact to be a product of lower...
See chart for IHS / neckline and pitchfork median line. While elipses on median is for a longer period, the price movement / volume from today implies a rapid move to the midline and $36 to $37 resistance at $33 (the neckline) and then 34.64 ahd 35.33.
INTC came strongly off of earnings today and has now formed an inverted Head & Shoulders. It also confirmed a pivot for a new pitch fork. Notice the median line and the H&S target coincide at $36.
Hard not to see the latest head and shoulders on the Bitcoin / USD chart. Distance from top to neckline is approx $70 which places the target at 160 which (by no coincidence to technicians) is a support level of the prior low. Caveat / disclosure - I was long Bitcoin a few months back out of belief in spite of the chart. I am long no longer and figured I'd get...
Regardless of your opinion of Hillary Clinton, her announcement that she is running for President comes as no surprise to anyone. And so goes the direction of Cattle Futures - it throws RSI divergences farther and faster than a cow chip throwing contest. If people know you trade then you will probably get the stray comment about "cattle futures" thrown your way...
If you trade VIX futures (and if you ever bought/sold UVXY you do) then contango and backwardation periods are important to monitor. Several analysts over the years have suggested a .90 ratio of the VIX to VXV for detecting contango (under .90) and backwardation (over .90). That ratio chart is presented here with the UVXY/VIX in the background. Why UVXY/VIX? ...
I am forecasting an All Time High for the S&P 500 next week. See chart. Basic rationale: With VIX as low as it was on Friday and no breakout I think probability of a small pullback Monday, followed by a Tuesday - Thursday high volume move through both resistance areas to an all time high. Friday may have a pin to 2120 at OEX or may drive higher. Basis for ATH...
I read an article the other day claiming "The VIX is Very Predictable" It claimed the method to buy/sell "the VIX" (which itself can't be bought or sold) is to take the 11 day ema and sma, plot them and buy when the ema goes under the sma, and sell when the ema goes above the sma. Here is a chart of the vix and a little indicator that I coded up using the...
Diamond Offshore's weekly chart showing 2 potential outcomes for May options expiration: 40 bucks or 23.50. Catalyst? Earnings on the 4th of May. The pitchfork pivots are clear as is the intersection of the midline with resistance at 40. Haglopian line pretty clear and would mark a new low. Also clear is the current price box between 30.60 and 29.06 (found...
BIS attracted quite a few buyers when the companion BIS went parabollic and had a small blow off. But the channel held and now all those buyers will be seeking exits in the coming weeks.
Gold battling to 1208 right now. If it goes under it leaves its fork without hitting the midline, so it should move lower to the Haplopian line. If that holds it will probably try to fight for 1208 again. Otherwise down to 1145. If it can hold 1208, however, it remains in the fork and should move to that midline which would be a breakout above 1225. Pivotal...
Sometimes bears get ahead of themselves and start pointing to "complacency!" so often that you figure when they give up and stop then complacency will be finally at hand. Well I use the VVIX to tell me when we have hit complacency, along with my "freakout indicator" which tracks the VIX & VVIX along with the S&P % above DMAs (50 and 200) for the 100 and...
The channel is acting like a channel and AMT is back to the top of it with no material difference in the RSI or cycle envelope since the last time... Did fail to tag the bottom of the channel bit it has done that before.
4 hour chart shows the Hust Cycle cross over to bullish price movement followed by this evening's open with a thrust toward the very critical 1220. Break out above 1220 should hit fib extension target at 1260 by end of week.