carvil_

carvil_

SPY started the day with a breakout above an important resistance line (in yellow). If it holds, we could be seeing $270-$280 this week. Play it safe, though. The fundamentals are all over the place and the economy is a long way from normality. The earnings season will start next week with banks, which means we will likely start seeing the markets running on the...

carvil_

In this analysis, I’m looking at the monthly chart since 2009 to get some perspective - I've been too focused on the past month, but it's important to get a high-level perspective. The next big support zone is the confluence of the long-term trendline (since 2019, represented in green) and Dec 2018 lows (purple horizontal line) between $236 and $233. The previous...

carvil_

There are 3 main highlights on this chart: The first ascending channel that started in February 28th had a breakout to the downside, which triggered new lows; After that, SPY entered in a descending channel until March 23rd. Then, the Fed announced unlimited QE and the US government announced trillions of dollars to support the economy. That triggered a...

carvil_

Now that $233 has been breached, as I mentioned in the previous idea, we're looking to reach $208-$200 area next. That intersection between the descending green line and the purple support line will be interesting to watch, as it will likely coincide with an oversold RSI on the monthly chart going back to 2008. If that level is also breached, we're looking to go...

carvil_

If we take a look at the last 10 years or so, we can see the long-term support line was breached at $233 today. The likely next target is $200, which coincides with 0.5 fib retracement. $200 could be a major bottom and a buying opportunity (do your own research, this is not investment advice, just my thoughts).

carvil_

It's not looking great. Even though there is an RSI divergence, SPY has been in a descending channel since the beginning of March. It tested the channel's resistance line a few times and failed to breakthrough. Tomorrow it might test it again, depending on the direction of the futures. If it fails, $233 is highly likely, if not worse.

carvil_

SPY is now an at important support level of $257 (red line). If breached, we will likely see Dec 2018 lows at $233.

carvil_

SPY keeps dropping heavily. Given the 5-year chart, here are the next levels to watch: - $273 which brings us to June 2019's lows - $265, which coincides with the 200 days EMA - $258, which is the long term support trendline - finally, $234, which coincides with December 2018's lows.

carvil_

Here are some facts on the 5-year chart for SPY: - bearish divergence - as SPY reached new highs from 2018 to 2020, the RSI has been declining (green trendline on the RSI indicator); - The decline in February 2020 hasn't reached oversold levels yet. We were close to that level in December 2018, but not quite there; - The resistance line (in green) from the highs...

carvil_

Chart on on a log scale.

carvil_

It needs to hold the area around $298-$304 in order to rebound. It looks like it's managing to do that right now. Not entering a trade yet as this we've only reallt hit this area today, need confirmation first. Thoughts?

carvil_

Good potential for a bullish breakout.

carvil_

Expecting a trend reversal soon, even if short term.

carvil_

It's important to stay above that level, which is a trend support line.

carvil_

AMZN has been forming a bull flag over the past 5 days and today resumed its uptrend.

carvil_

Nothing is stopping SQ. After breaking out from the ascending channel, it has been going through every resistance without stopping.

carvil_

If successful, the next targets are $18.80 and $21.30.

carvil_

Is Dropbox ever going back to $25+? It's been quite disappointing to watch, expect record minimums in the coming days.