XAUSpeculator

XAUSpeculator

BIG PICTURE UPDATE: - We are not yet in a recession but most likely are headed towards one some time between Nov 2023 - April 2024. - Stocks will peak within 1-2 moths of a spike in Jobless Claims - Yields will continue to rise until something bad happens to the economy and the Fed is forced to do QE - With yields rising, they will take the Dollar higher...

XAUSpeculator

Initial position from yesterday running well in profit with SL at break even (see last post) Looking for a potential scale in NOTE: this is higher risk since DXY and Oil are at critical lvls and could reverse

XAUSpeculator

Over last 2 weeks, the market has stopped responding to fundamentals which are showing a stronger labor market than the Fed is willing to tolerate; should have pushed XAU lower. We're 2 weeks away from the next rate hike (February 1st) and we could see a correction in this time, especially if the market is expecting a less aggressive Fed. In that case, price will...

XAUSpeculator

Over last 2 weeks, the market has stopped responding to fundamentals which are showing a stronger labor market than the Fed is willing to tolerate; should have pushed XAU lower. We're 2 weeks away from the next rate hike (February 1st) and we could see a correction in this time, especially if the market is expecting a less aggressive Fed. In that case, price...

XAUSpeculator

Really tricky market to make sense of right now because of how last weeks data (stronger job market - confirmed by NFP) was disregarded. This could mean: 1. Either they were beginning to lay a trap (current moves will reverse) 2. The market genuinely doesn't care because it expects claims to eventually pick up with a vengeance Here's what I think: CPI has...

XAUSpeculator

Here is what’s happening with GOLD right now (macro view) : 1. After aggressive rate hikes by all governments, we’re now nearly guaranteed to enter a GLOBAL recession 2. During a recession, people lose jobs which means companies lose customers and hence their earnings fall 3. All of this is happening at a time when the interest payments are now at the highest...

XAUSpeculator

Fundamentals point to a more aggressive Fed response; expecting claims to come in softer tomorrow - asset flows particularly bonds support this view Expecting a large move higher in USD and a large drop in XAU tomorrow if initial/continuing claims come in softer than expected

XAUSpeculator Updated 

This trade should ideally be a TUESDAY event based on fundamentals; if the data comes out a particular way the trade will be less valid.

XAUSpeculator Updated 

TECHNICAL REASON: Price was within the zone of interest and the 4H candle has no lower wick which means everyone is priced one way; could see some profit taking ahead of FOMC FUNDAMENTAL REASON: It is worth noting that to the Fed, to gage inflation and how sticky it is or isn't, they are looking at jobs (more than CPI, PPI etc). Since the job market isn't...

XAUSpeculator Updated 

I could be dead wrong with what I'm about to say but trying to take a short even at 1800 doesn't match up with the rate hike next week. Tomorrow's JOBS # is the final piece of the puzzle; we'll know what's going on once the dust settles. But if the criteria (see image) is met, I'm definitely interested in going long into next Wednesday (FOMC).

XAUSpeculator Updated 

During deflation investors prioritize investment-grade bonds, defensive stocks (those of consumer goods companies), dividend-paying stocks, and cash. Current asset flows, including the slide in oil indicates this regime allocation is in play (see attached image - below) In terms of XAU: - It has already been repriced higher after less-hawkish comments from...

XAUSpeculator

the rally seems to have some sort of design to it indicating it is an institutional trend since it was hard to break through the first pink zone, it may be hard again to break through it?

XAUSpeculator

curious to see if this will play out, bearish divergence, over extended without a real correction

XAUSpeculator

Russia has come onto the supply cut deal with OPEC + Structural SUPP at current price

XAUSpeculator

Playing structure

XAUSpeculator

Expecting a further down leg