I posted in March 2020 that we had likely seen a generational low in yields following the spike driven by Covid fears. We are now STILL in the early innings of a generational (at least 20 years) BULL market for inflation and yields Position accordingly over coming years
Folks are getting all hot under the collar and bulled up on stonks after recent mindless rally on stupidity of lower rates in early 2024 and lower inflation. Folks I hate to break it to you but we are in the early innings of a generational bull market for inflation and yields. Buying stonks at these egregious valuations is a recipe for disaster. I added to long...
Some folks on the TA side are looking at a HnS in Eurostoxx. Hard to disagree with this tbh. Decent R/R shorting here as stop can be quite tight vs potentially large profits. Momentum waning as well.
SHORT RUT/RTY 1820 stop 1900 target sub 1600 This rally on one fluky/flaky piece of data makes zero sense Inflation is not going away anytime soon
Update on US long end rates view. YCC or not this is what I think could happen over next 2 years. When I was on the fixed income trading desk at Lehman in '88 we had short end paper that yielded double digits....and given the amount of fiat being printed this could be just the start of the back up in yields
Hate to disappoint you fixed income bulls We are in the early stages of a secular bull market for yields (started 2020) as inflation will prove persistently bad There may be pullbacks along the way but the path is higher Long bond yield>10>50>200 ma
If you aren't already short from higher (I am) then decent risk/reward set-up right here. Sell 1750, stop 1775, target sub 1700 ideally 1650 test in the next couple of weeks.
US 30yr bonds have seen a year's worth of action in the space of a month From 1.90% to below 0.90% to back to 1.90% In my opinion this reversal could be key for the bond bull market since the 1980s If we get a close above 2.10% in 30yr yields I think we have seen a generational low this month Just saying
Shorted the breakdown in the Dow Already max short in small caps
V long term UK 10yr yields. You decide. "Transitory".
Similar to Bunds but here with clear +ve divergence on indicators suggest higher yields forthcoming.
I can see a cascading move lower in the small cap index over the coming months down to the 1500 area possibly by year end or early 2024.
Been calling this the last few days. German Bund yields beginning to break back higher again. Inflation NOT transitory. ECB next week. Could be headed back above 2% soon.
I believe the stars are aligning for a decent med term short for stonks. Fundamentals are poor - inflation and rates higher for longer (not factored into earnings yet). Sentiment is extreme - note recent sentiment surveys all extremely bullish (greed) contrary to market perception. Bears have been capitulating - note short covering rallies (stopped out) in...
I believe the stars are aligning for a decent med term short for stonks Fundamentals are poor - inflation and rates higher for longer (not factored into earnings yet) Sentiment is extreme - note recent sentiment surveys all extremely bullish (greed) contrary to market perception Bears have been capitulating - note short covering rallies (stopped out) in heavily...
Today we have see a continuation of the dramatic slide in the DAX into CRITICAL 8100-8600 support zone. This is a confluence of long term support and target zone for wace c/y (where it equals 1.618 times wave a/w) of Wave 4) PINK If the very long term trend is to remain up the market must hold this zone
Russell has been the weakest part of the market for a while. Delicately poised, has held above key support 1700 for the last 10 months. If that goes, you could see -10% (1520) easily and quickly. Watch 1700.
This is one of the patterns I have been looking at the last few months. If it is playing out Bunds are heading towards 3%.