Absolutely critical support zone for DAX 8100-8600

Today we have see a continuation of the dramatic slide in the DAX into CRITICAL 8100-8600 support zone.
This is a confluence of long term support and target zone for wace c/y (where it equals 1.618 times wave a/w) of Wave 4) PINK
If the very long term trend is to remain up the market must hold this zone

Comment:

I find it interesting that the DAX has continued to hold key support 8100 (give it scope to 8000 big number) the top of wave 1) in pink, whilst the SPX had further weakness the last few days. Also interesting is the possibility that VOL of Eurostoxx may have peaked......still clinging to the idea that we will find a bottom here or abouts for continuation of very very long term uptrend despite virus impact shorter term

Comment:

DAX held v long term support and EW count and has rallied 25%+ off the lows.
I believe the low is in and that we will make new highs this year or next above 14000.
In the shorter term however I am taking profits on longs and have entered tactical short DAX at 11140 pre FOMC announcement looking for at least a 10%-15% pullback in coming weeks. Will then look to rebuy in the 9000s for v long uptrend.

Comment:

And here we are 20 months later and about 100% higher. May still have room for another push in coming months but I suspect we run out of steam sometime in 2022/2023 for a much longer timeframe consolidation/pullback of the cyclical bull market and thus supply plenty of opportunities for rotation and long/short alpha capture.

Comment:

The longer term cycle is potentially peaking around 16,000.
Given macro backdrop (inflation and rates likely to prove sticky/higher for longer than most expect over coming years) then alpha opportunities may start to look attractive on the short side.