2019-12-12
compared with 2019-06-21
This idea is based on a repeat of microstructure in the macrostructure, and should be regarded as pure speculation on a interesting observation i made.
There is a long standing support line at 50.4 that hasn't been touched, a breakout of trend is unlikely without a touch. I am therefore of the opinion that this is a whipsaw coming to an end and that one should atleast consider a lower low.
H&S forming in a downtrend, if it forms this might start earlier than I expected. Either way gold is going down with bullish markets, dovish fed and minimal inflation.
Thats all for now, will update this idea.
We broke trend and there is a possibility that oil is about to go parabolic, but i have my doubts. API report came in yesterday with a buildup of 3m, and today we will get a better view with the EIA report. If they are the same it could be a sign of a general doubt that these prices are sustainable, and i think anticipating a (maybe small) drawdown before buying is wise.
This is an idea i had on oil. I'm new so don't take my advice, but please give me advice on how to better give advice :^)
Oil broke resistance, which will now serve as support. I don't see oil going higher until the political issues are cleared out, so im betting on a consilidation in this range. It could be a good idea to stay away until a solid near-term trend...
I have two ideas in mind, bounce at 2.84 ....or bounce at 2.74 (for the optimist bear (me!))
I hope my thinking is clear from the graph (ignore the memelines from earlier, i usually don't publish).
In conclusion, i see a solid trend brake and no support in sight
Please share your thoughts with me so i can improve :D
I have moved my stop loss for my short to...
I'm short right now but if it manages to brake out of trend in either of the marked triangles i will go long. If it fails now there will probably be a significant dump before it rises by late february.
Short term trend is down, question is: where will it bounce? i have two scenarios in mind, one where it bounces on the old support at 51.4 (lower circle, more likely), and another where it bounces on a new possible support (used to be resistance) in the upward trend at 52.8 (higher circle, less likely). All in all i would say to stay away right now.
