Levels remain from prior charts. Our analysis points to an inversion (which alters market structure) over the past 48 hours and a high intensity energy decline off the recent time cycle, which may lead to lower levels sooner. We listen to the market in the short term and adjust analysis ad hoc. The medium-longer term analysis remains the same as previously...
We continue to work with the assumption the Ethereum market (and crypto) is in a downtrend that, if continuing, may culminate in short term selling climax tomorrow afternoon US time. Time and price zones identified previously remain on the chart.
At present, we like adding to positions on hourly range breakouts to the downside in lieu of upside exhaustion.
We are working with the hypothesis that the down wave mentioned in earlier posts is continuing and, here, highlighting shorter term horizon with relevant price points above and below current market.
We like executing further short at upward exhaustion as well as EU/AP/US opens/closes
Decision levels to watch action at are 704, 637.
IF market moves with sharp or progressively grinding lower lows through these levels
THEN assume targets of 450, then 385 by November
ELSE market enters an extended triangle-like sideways market with equilibrium range 590-710
Observation : Market has three decision zones with little resistance in between
IF
Potential for market to rise sharply higher for trend breakout day
ELSE
Revise opportunity if 9/16 day trend does not continue upward
Next wave is lower
IF
Market must break lower now, without meaningful break of near term 3450 high (defined as slow upward grind through high or sharp close through)
ELSE IF
Market creates additional sideways movement between 3700 and 3000, evaluate for new sell signal
ELSE
Evaluate longer term sell signal
Note:
This is an overlay onto longer term Sell announcement.
(High risk) : due to significant up trend strength
Is this a hard trade? Yes
Reward/Risk asymmetry is present with targets <= 120
Potential for high velocity momentum breakdown in multi-year AAPL bull trend
IF
Short term (near term high) momentum down anticipated to carry price through trend line lower without meaningful break of near term high
ELSE
Market price...