Solipsis

Solipsis

This "death cross" so far doesn't look too scary, there isn't much volume and the trend line from the last month still looks like it might hold. That said, if it doesn't, we've got quite a drop coming. I suppose we're one major fud article away from seeing some damage.

Solipsis

So, since Nov 2020 we've been on this trend line for the bottom, you can clearly see multiple touch points with the recent drops bouncing off it and us retesting again. I feel a lot of people are going to be watching this who are stock-to-flow fans, because if we drop below this it's going to signal a massive loss of confidence and potentially take us properly...

Solipsis

Based on what I've highlighted here, I'm guessing we're heading for a short term dump. The RSI and MACD patterns I've highlighted here on the daily charts it looks very familiar to small dumps from the last several months.

Solipsis

I'm not really big on the idea of any method or indicator that claims to predict the future. Usually, I see repeating patterns as nothing more than market psychology or coincidence. That said, it's really interesting to see how the 2017 boom/bust pattern looks quite similar to the recent run-up and drop that we've seen, and in particular the drop to $8k and...

Solipsis

Like everyone else, I've been watching BTC the last couple of weeks to see if it will return to $3,200. Some were hopeful that the brief green we saw was the turnaround but I was pessimistic and expected a return to low $3k and possibly more. But, judging by these wicks and the attempted dumps that have failed and shown some decent rebound in price (and volume)...

Solipsis

The other day I was watching the 4hour and plotted out a basic trendline where the breakout was a text book example. We saw a pretty large pump to $3882 that was immediately shutdown. I would've thought after the breakout that BTC would start to trend up again but only a day later and a huge selloff started. It's hard to say what's driving this here. There was...

Solipsis

BTC looks like it's on autopilot and sideways as the market can't decide whether to dump further or not. Indicators (highlighted) would suggest we could turn around here and not dump further. Sentiment around the web - from what I've seen - suggest that a lot of buyers are salivating for BTC to be in the $2k range, which means money on the sidelines waiting to...

Solipsis

In my last notes I mentioned that we wouldn't immediately drop below this $3,600 range indicated. If BTC falls below that then we're testing $3,200 again, and possibly lower. It certainly doesn't look good right now on some of these indicators (see MACD and plenty of room on daily RSI). I'm curious to see if this area holds, we'll find out in the coming days.

Solipsis

So, after some time away - I've been watching BTC periodically - I figured I'd start tracking thoughts again about BTC. A few days I plotted out the higher lows and the top trendline showing the lower highs which form the wedge you can see. Although it's broken down, I don't think we will really know the extent of the damage till it breaks below the line...

Solipsis

So for those that just wondered what the hell happened, BTC had a range of $8,750 to $9,500 on a 1 minute candle. Lets wait to see what the explanation behind this might be...

Solipsis

I recently read an article by Ossettia (a crypto trader I follow) called Bitcoin and Barts: An Explanation (medium.com) that gives the most plausible explanation of what we're seeing with BTC price movements of late. Lets face it, some of these surges and dumps are far outside the realm of traditional TA and seem to surprise even seasoned traders. The article...

Solipsis

So, if you've been following www.cryptoground.com you've probably seen that about 16,000 BTC has been moved out of the Mt Gox Trustee cold storage today. I'm not sure if the recent price dump was somehow in anticipation (early / inside info) to this, or if the trustee decided to move the coins after the dump because of fear the price could fall lower....

Solipsis

So that pump was just insane in terms of recent volume. The 4 hour isn't done yet but we haven't seen volume like this since the times marked on the chart (at around the 5.4k and 3k lows). Could lead to a potential shift in sentiment or perhaps just some FOMO before we dive back down in a few days, too early to tell still, and it still needs to become apparent...

Solipsis

It's been an erratic week to say the least. I haven't bothered publishing or trying to analyse much of the chop as it is just too erratic. We're starting to see what looks like a pretty basic channel formed now. I don't think we'll remain in this for long. Volume isn't great and there hasn't been anything near the volume bounce we've see earlier, so I'm not...

Solipsis

Don't call it a comeback just yet, but a bounce around the $7,500 - $7,600 mark could signal that we have found some an upward long term trendline (see chart). Thoughts? Lets see how it plays out.

Solipsis

I have a feeling we'll hold this support line and continue up into the wedge, but as you can see by the surges and dumps the last few days it's very hard to predict. We'll know in a few hours. If this support line is broken we head down toward $8,200 as the next stop. * This is not financial advice or trading advice. This is analysis and personal opinion used...

Solipsis

For once I was able to chart out an actual trend and pattern in this mess.

Solipsis

Yesterday's idea mentioned that there was still room to fall, and we did end up sub $8k, but I'm still not sure if we'll dive down to the same levels as the last crash, we'll see. Looking at the 4hour charts and comparing to last time we were in this price area, the 4hour candle sliced through (see highlighted circle and yellow line), this time it seems to have...