SoManyDistractions

SoManyDistractions Updated 

Based on my trading strategy, sells are the highest probability for Gold today - if you look at the Federal Funds target rate probabilities, there is a shift in investor sentiment the past 3 days, each day progressively leaning more towards a higher rate hike in the coming FOMC conference. This would mean that investors are pricing in a stronger dollar, and...

SoManyDistractions

Gold is looking more and more bearish recently, after the past 2 weeks when we saw a bull run despite the HTF bearish bias. That resulted from positive economic news, giving investors the belief that the Feds could raise interest rates by 50bps - as opposed to 75 bps - the next rate hike. But recently, the probabilities are shifting back to a 75 bps rate hike and...

SoManyDistractions

Hear me out... The past 2 weeks have been interesting for Gold. Price broke out of a HTF down trend range, originating in March/22. The main driver of the bearish price action has been macroeconomic events mainly decisions by the Feds - Interest rates are one of their main tools for bringing down inflation. With the last CPI reading being less than the previous...

SoManyDistractions Updated 

Gold has seen a strong bullish rally last week, continuing into this week. Today in 5min, CPI results will be released. This is huge and important news for investors because of the current issues with inflation, and how strong the Fed has been with trying to slow inflation; we will see if any of the current steps taken have actually made an impact.. There is...

SoManyDistractions

Re-entry based on same idea as before. Higher Resistance should be respected and HTF confirmations are met. Trade smart and happy Friday.

SoManyDistractions Updated 

I see my confirmation to enter the trade. Price can continue testing this Supply zone/resistance, but I would be surprised if it breaks above - that is why I put my money on a sell. But no trade is ever guaranteed, no matter how pretty the setup is... If the resistance is respected, though, it should be an amazing Friday for us all :) I would also take partials as...

SoManyDistractions

Study past price action after interest rates and you will see what I mean (go to Sept 21). This is obviously a rough setup, I would have to wait for confirmations before entering; but it could certainly look something like this.

SoManyDistractions

Based on the current Weekly, Daily, 4H market structure, they all are bearish making Lower lows and lower highs. 30m just flipped bullish but quickly closed back in the previous bearish range, and now if the uptrend breaks as well as the minor support low breaking, i am looking for sells.

SoManyDistractions

It is always helpful to remember the HTF market structure and trend. This is my Friday morning analysis review of the market on a daily perspective beginning from Aprils high which marks the beginning of this bearish channel.

SoManyDistractions

Potential bearish Asia Session, with volume I am looking to take advantage of the high inflation, CPI news, and large ranges currently on Gold - 1:10 RR nearly.

SoManyDistractions

Here is my analysis during Pre-NY. I will likely wait for either a bullish break out to retest the highs; or, a bearish reversal where price breaks down, and if it retests the support as resistance, and continues bearish, that would be a sell in my eyes. Remember to follow your trading plan today and stick to it!

SoManyDistractions

What a wild ride today. Price broke the low of resistance which would be my sell entry, right as i finished doing my morning analysis. This threw me off because I wanted to enter but I knew I missed the chance and had to wait. But I unfortunately did not wait enough, I sold at support and price retraced, hitting my SL. Keeping the same bias, I waited for a new...

SoManyDistractions

Analyzing price action from the past 2 Sessions, Asia and London, I see bears stepping in. The Bulls are hitting daily resistance and may need to breathe. Asia and Pre-London both retested the high formed, both Monday + Tuesday were very bullish days, so I am not going to be surprised if we see a Bearish NY session today, or possibly some consolidation. But what I...

SoManyDistractions

As discussed in my previous post, I had a bullish bias and sure enough price action was aligned with the analysis. Great trade today, so grateful! Stay curious.

SoManyDistractions

Please note that these long and short positions are not at all strategically positioned; instead I simply am showing a general idea of what price could do, so please set your own SL and TP. But the fact is price has been extremely bullish since last week when the weekly candle respected a supply zone. Price is now retracing which shows us the bullish daily...

SoManyDistractions

My initial bias was to buy if price broke above $1669 but upon watching price action in pre-NY, a nice support was formed which allowed me to keep a small SL so instead of a 1:2 or 1:3 trade, I could achieve a 1:4. That means this trade doesnt have to work too often to be profitable, and with the NY volume and Comex open, I expected price to either break up/down...

SoManyDistractions

It is a new month! Here is my first setup idea for today's NY Session based on last week and todays price action. Keep in mind news at 10am est, ISM Manufacturing PMI which could impact USD and Gold. I am leaning towards longs based on recent price action but if price breaks down i will look for support to form below $1659 on LTF and then sell if the low breaks....

SoManyDistractions

The Bulls came in strong during Pre-NY, after a liquidity grab, continuing the London impulse move/retracement, and looking to retest 4H supply/resistance. I entered using the 15m due to the increased volume and massive candle bodies, as well as price breaking 1H resistance at the same time the Comex opens (8:20am EST). set TP to the 4H resistance at $1637 and hit...