Today may be the day we get the long-awaited bounce in rates and equity. SMI is showing signs of strength with a positively sloped trendline. ES1! appears to fight the sellers' pressure and bounces of the anticipated support at around 2627.00 forming a triple bottom. Now the first resist is visible at 2712 but the major one is expected to be located at around...
For the past couple of days the rates have changed their direction from downward to consolidated horizontal. Pre-market wedge offers a good opportunity to learn about the future martket direction. Overall it looks like a bounce with double bottom near 3.04. So I argue being bullish. SMI has been showing the upward trend since 19 November
Election night has proven to be beneficiary to both parties (depends what you understand by that but it is a consensus, I think sometimes necessary in democracy). Everything went, more or less, according to the polls. Gran'Ol'Party will keep Senate while Dems will get the House. From now on it may get more interesting, although Trump has never had full support of...
USDJPY more or less follows US10Y. Right now it is closing in on the resistance. Far from its EMA however. It might mean there may be a reversal move. SMI weakens like the least time it touched it. "This time is different" quoting the classic. But on the contrary to this popular and often false phrase, this actually may be different. Watch out for the guide in...
Rates are breaking the resistance on very weak equities, seems like the support will hold. At the moment SMI seems to be pointing in the continuation of trend's direction. Watch the market sentiment. The bounce may signal the upward move. Sadly I missed the bounce off the EMA in the early hours. Now waiting for some confirmation in one or the other way.
The week start with a significant raise in yields (US10Y) accompanied by a downside move in equities (ES1!). Seems like we witnessed a bounce off the EMA and the beginning of October's support. I wouldn't be so sure however given the explosion in yields. One is wrong the other one is correct that's for sure. Watch carefully the support and possible resistance at 2744.
As Ainsley Harriot once said, we may pour some oil so we don't burn the steak Well he probably didn't say it but.... A wedge formed with October down-sloped trendline. SMI converges with the moves of CL so we are carefully watching and waiting, Pay attention if any divergence occurs with US10Y
You wake up, brush your teeth, go to work, come back, read a book and then see how DJI fits perfectly one of the simplest technical tools, meaning the trendlines. You want to go and tell this to your friends. They wouldn't understand it. And they have to be real characters in the first place. Well, the trendline holds and DJI bounces off it like a ball of your...
TLT is going higher, slowly but surerly. Since the big drop in the beginning of bloody October TLT has found strong support and formed a wedge. It is a rather medium-term opportunity than short-term. For now it seems so be bouncing off the upward-sloped trendline and we may see an end of this move in the range 114.74 - 115. Although it still may go a few days...
Yields have found resistance and support in the early market yesterday. Today they were poised to go higher but didn't brake through the tripple resistance, a little congestion in the range 3.117 - 3.127. Then again rates found support earlier today and maybe formed a new trendline up. Given current market conditions I don't see rates going much higher. At least...
Welcome to the series where I play with both technical and fundamental aspects of the market. Leave your suggestions if you want me to cover a specific asset. Technical story: As everyone but Maluma noticed, FX_IDC:EURCOP is really close to marking all time... close, but breaking high may come too. The correlation with emerging markets ( AMEX:VWO ), although...
USDJPY is rallying along with bonds. May show support at 61.% fibonacci retracement. Yields still have some points to catch up. Although we may see USDJPY bouncing downward instead of 10y yields moving this far upward
Starting off the day with diverged asset classes. 10Y note yields has gone lower while SPX futures showed some resistance and look like they are about to break out higher from the small (and a little bit crooked) wedge that formed. During writing of this post the divergence is disappearing :( SMI suggests downward move but this may not be the case. Watch closely...
DAX is on the support. Watch out for breakout as it may happen within two hours or so! Keep in mind this may be a false breakout since most of the story is told by US equities not by european. This would be interesting however to see the failure of this october trendline.
S&P 500 opened two times BIG gap down (1.2%-1.3%) within the last 3 days! Something which has not happened neither during 2015 and 2016 corrections nor during XIV imploding in february this year. This is spectacular situation as neither of those gaps were completely filled. This signals that the downsloping trendline is indeed very strong. Moreover spoos have...
At the end of the day rates and JPY shows a bit of divergence. The most important is however the trendline which holds steady for both rates and safe haven currency. Above the trendline there is also a 50% fibo retrac. You have to be careful about this one if the trendline gets broken. There is also a wedge forming.
So far this month rates were showing the future move for oil. Is it the case this time? Rates are falling meanwhile oil skyrocketed on Saudi Arabia's case. Poor equities outlook weighs a bit on oil's demand. In my opinion oil will drop from current levels. The viwer should pay attention to both technicals and fundamentals right now as situations of oil markets...
Rates fall below 3.100 and below all the supports. Currently continuing the downsloping trendline. The plunge found support at 3.076 and 3.06. We may expect a bounce up to 3.085 and then if the trend is broken, it will signal short term bullishness for stocks. Otherwise, it will be bearish for stocks and equities may enter a bear market. Also have to be careful...