RuckSack

RuckSack

Watching USDCAD ahead of CPI release later today. It is currently sitting in a narrow 12 pip range on the 10m chart after bouncing from the lows yesterday. It spent nearly two days below 1.33850 after the Dollar weakened last week on the back of the 'no change' from the Fed. That Dollar weakness does give us the potential for a bounce to set a lower high on the...

RuckSack

We saw a huge sell off when EURCAD broke it's uptrend last week so I'm watching GBPCAD to see if we get a similar flush. Price has been holding the trend now for several days with price barely able to escape and push higher, leading to further tightening. Entry signal would be a non ambiguous break of the Daily trend with stop above high of day if possible....

RuckSack Updated 

USDJPY has been in decline again the Yen since last weeks CPI release. The thing I find most interesting though is the rate of the fall. The left hand chart shows the expected daily range (ExMo) for the pair, with price moving further than expectation in the last 4 sessions. Yesterday we dropped double ExMo by 9:30am! With price sitting on the low for the rest of...

RuckSack Updated 

We've only closed bearish 1 day in the last ten on EURJPY, it really has been a stand out performer recently. I was interested short a week ago before it broke out of the Daily channel, and since it has been nothing but a long. There is an interesting pattern that could present a possible short, but I'm being extremely patient and want to see as much...

RuckSack Updated 

Opened a position on EURJPY to fade the move back towards the Daily uptrend. Decided to go with an option for this with Exp on Friday Nov 10th @160.500 strike. Price accelerated away from the uptrend after the BoJ announcement on Oct 31st, before it pulled in and supported at 159.500 for a couple days and rallied again. I feel this provides a good risk reward on...

RuckSack Updated 

Long GBPAUD after some nice consolidation at the low Thur/Fri last week. We've been in a Daily range since mid September and after a recent top to bottom move we've seen accumulation at the end of last week, as shown on the 30m TF with the double bottom spikes. Profit target at the Daily range high at 1.9300, but there is a scenario where we break it? More on...

RuckSack Updated 

Using the intra-day wedge to get short after we broke the Daily up trend yesterday. That candle did close bullish, but I think the intra-day wedge helps to establish the short bias. Target is perhaps optimistic but with a positive swap, I'm happy to hold overnight. Stop above high of day at 0.86882 Targeting ExMo low/Previous days low around 0.86550 Broker...

RuckSack

What a week that was! The dance around 150 certainly didn't disappoint. After the break and failure the week prior which continued on Monday, I thought that was it, that price gave it a good shot but ultimately failed, and would perhaps settle below. To nobodies surprise then when the BoJ held rates at -0.10% that we made almost a straight line move back above...

RuckSack

I'd been watching USDCAD accelerate away from the Daily uptrend last week but didn't see a good enough opportunity to get short. On Tuesday morning we'd failed again at 1.38500 during Asia and was selling off below VWAP. This was a decent intra-day signal and I opened an options position with a 1.3800 strike, expiring Friday Nov 3rd. Unfortunately price bottomed...

RuckSack

What an insane session for USDJPY! We know the ExMo is low due to the compression we've seen, but even compared to more normalised figure, what we've seen today has broken all expectations. There are two questions going forward. The most immediate is the Dollar news we have scheduled for Nov 1st. Those being ADP at 12:15pm London (due to daylight savings)...

RuckSack

Ahead of the BoJ rate decision tomorrow, USDJPY sold off heavily today on a somewhat unprovoked move...did someone get wind of the decision early? Either way it has created a bunch of space on the chart and may make it difficult to find level early tomorrow morning. The BoJ are expected to hold at -0.10% so it may be the press conference that provides the...

RuckSack

Looking ahead for a potential trade idea tomorrow on a pair that isn't seeing news until 9:45pm when the NZD employment numbers are released, so this may be a safe haven away from the Yen and Dollar volatility. My bias is for a short at 1.91400 but keep an eye out for it to flip as support and for us to start to work our way back towards the Daily range high....

RuckSack

On the Daily chart (right panel) you can see the wedge GBPAUD has been respecting until Tuesday when a large sell of caused it to close outside. After a flush down on AUD news Wednesday, it saw strong buying pressure which looks to be resuming today after a drop early London. I'm now starting to look at the 30m range from 1.9060 to 1.9320 as the way to play...

RuckSack

Ahead of the ECB rate decision tomorrow, the futures markets see almost zero chance we get anything other than a hold at 4.50%. This falls in line with other economies including the Bank of Canada which held rates earlier today. From a technical perspective the Daily chart is back above the wedge breakout level. I took a Long this morning from 0.87140 after a...

RuckSack Updated 

The AUD was exceptionally strong today ahead of the CPI release in the early hours of Oct 25th. It is expected to have slowed to 5.3% from 6.0% in Q2 leading the futures marked to price in a 75% chance the RBA will hold rates at the Nov 7th meeting. Technically however there was a different pictures today, with the Pound and Euro falling 200 pips in the session...

RuckSack

USDJPY continues to squeeze below 150. Given the buying and continued resilience we've seen every time we get a flush down on some intervention fears, it's clear the real resistance at 150 is psychological. With this in mind I'm favouring a buy if we break and a further add if we hold. The only question is the volatility. We've seen some incredible moves, like...

RuckSack Updated 

The EUR was among a host of currencies today that spent most of the session in a range. EURAUD here was constrained mostly to a 30 pip boundary, making entries difficult. USDCAD was a sell around lunch time, but I was away from the desk at the break point. It looks like the pair has given back the post CPI gains. USDJPY is a notable exception at the time of...

RuckSack

Interesting development on EURAUD as price is starting to narrow between recent highs and a munch longer term trend line. The uptrend started on 6th Sept 2022 after putting in a low around 1.43000 in late August. Technicals The uptrend line has provided solid support ever since, with bounces in January and June of this year. The January example is most...