OptionsRising

OptionsRising

Both $QQQ and $XBI made a bullish reversal open on 27 Sep., however QQQ sold down while XBI moved higher. When the daily candle on XBI (or candle pattern) does not match that on QQQ, take note. I have added lines to highlight examples, and these mismatches often occur at turning points with XBI indicating direction for QQQ. It is not a sure predictor, as you can...

OptionsRising Updated 

If you have been invested in healthcare stocks or ETF's you may want to take profits between now and the end of October. I am keeping an eye on this chart for some good trades. It is a low volume stock with very low options volume, so be very selective with your entry time/place and your option price. Daily trading ranges can be large or small, so give extra...

OptionsRising Updated 

From Dec. you can see a bottoming formation on the daily chart, and price is back above the yellow line now. 20sma is sloped upward while price has taken a breather and brought RSI down to retest 50. RSI closed below 50 on 21Sep. If today it is back at/over 50 after market close, then today's candle is a signal for another leg up. In order for this RSI 50-test to...

OptionsRising

News prompted this stock to make a bullish reversal open today, as shown by the white arrow. The gray box highlights a bullish engulfing candle, and it is common for the initial demand to see a selloff that moves price lower. If price will rise again then there should be upside follow through in the next day or two. RSI has a bullish divergence with price action...

OptionsRising

The vertical lines match $SPX lows with times when only 15-20% of stocks traded over their 200ma. The light blue line is a 10-week moving average and you can see that once it turns up it keeps rising (2008-09 was an exception). According to this broad market indicator, stocks have been performing better since early July. This is a big picture view, not to be...

OptionsRising Updated 

This might be one of the best long trade setups out there right now. I will post my analysis this evening; I hope in the meantime you can study the chart to see some indicator clues for yourself. *** Strong bullish view is valid only if XBI closes over 86, AAPL closes over 152.60 (ideally 153), and SPX closes over 3915 (ideally 3930). Yes, I want all 3 conditions...

OptionsRising

Look at the daily candle for 13Sep and you would have no idea that U.S. markets tanked on the same day. This is relative strength, and it shows in today's price action as well (see smaller timeframes). There is a recent inverse H&S pattern, shown by the peach zigzag arrow. In order to move higher, buyers must move price over 304-305 (volume shelf) and then...

OptionsRising Updated 

If you watch price on QQQ or SPY, you will see a strong price battle going on between buyers and sellers. Daily timeframe, the question of course is whether PPI tomorrow causes another gap down or a reversal back up towards upper resistance line. RSI and stochastic do not provide a reliable directional signal right now; all the more reason for caution in your trades.

OptionsRising Updated 

After the initial hour up today, price has consolidated. It has been rising strong though, mostly outside the Keltner channel (on 30m) and here this hourly chart shows price under the 200ma. A cooling is needed, but based on 30m, daily, weekly charts, I cannot join the crowd calling for a big move down. If anything, larger timeframe indicators neutral to bullish for now.

OptionsRising Updated 

While I usually use candle charts, sometimes I switch to line charts for better perspective. On the weekly you can see: * resistance at 50sma ~298.40, price is there * white down trend line is ~308-310 * price already reversed from 50ma, tested 20sma, and put in a big upward move this week (reason for caution on puts) Look at the yellow circle on RSI (14 day)....

OptionsRising

The green line and white arrows mark support from the June and July low candles. Interestingly, if we look at closing prices instead on this line chart, we see $SPX broke the yellow support line and is now retesting it today. What remains to be seen is whether $SPX: 1 - reverses at yellow line for a big move lower 2 - pushes upward to the 20sma and then either...

OptionsRising Updated 

Yellow line connects daily close. Green line connects lows. Will RSI-14 hold bull support at 35 (maybe over 33.33)? Will stochastic turn up or stay bearish early next week?

OptionsRising

On the daily chart, SPX has resistance at 50MA and demand support near 3970. Now that price has moved to the 20sma (30m chart) - first time since breaking (white spots) - look for signs of more downside or a reversal. A bigger move may happen overnight so allow time in your trade (using SPY options, not SPX). This afternoon could see rangebound trading and result...

10:35

OptionsRising

I discuss five indications that traders need caution on QQQ (and market generally) instead of expecting an immediate directional move. This video demonstrates how to use chart analysis to form context for placing trades. By understanding the daily chart, traders can then look for good trade entries on smaller timeframes. I also created this video to counter all...

OptionsRising

Compare August 19-23 here with Aug. 22-24 on SPX and NDX (or SPY and QQQ). You can see the XBI lead at numerous turning points on the daily chart if you look back. I note yesterday's red candle not as a solid predictor of market's close today, but as a caution and a note to lean bearish. The dashed yellow line connects closes on a line chart. If XBI closes below...

OptionsRising

Plenty of experts on Twitter were calling for a top in SPX today as it rallied up to the daily 200ma. On SPY there was a market dump that can be seen on the 5-min chart today (after 2pm). However there are two points of caution for immediately jumping into swing puts: 1 - price has yet to touch the light blue downtrend line, which would be around 4335-4340 2 - RSI...

OptionsRising

I have been watching IWM and XBI for weakness or strength as general market indicators. Today's open was below Friday's open, which is very bearish. Same is true for AAPL. XBI tried to rise and failed. Overall, many tickers have completed a "cup" formation and are extended from their daily MA's while indicators are extremely overbought. Hence a pullback to...

OptionsRising Updated 

This post focuses on price at the orange target. Ideal entry is with AAPL priced over 155. For context, and to better understand the lines I have drawn, you can see the recent post linked here. Reasons to buy puts on AAPL today: 1) 154.80-157 is resistance, given by yellow and red lines on daily, and 50sma on weekly (or enter below 30m break of 154.90). 2) Put...