Mr_Dent

Mr_Dent

Here is the setup: 1 - Commercial Traders net position ranks 92% on a 18m basis - They have been buying heavily into this decline. Trend following Hedge Funds on the other hand score a very weak 21% so they are still extremely short even after this 30 cent wipeout. Once the technicals start turning, their algo's will be covering to lock in the sizeable gains on...

Mr_Dent

Nat Gas is currently entering a bearish month seasonally. Since 1990, the July win percentage is only 41%, and to make matters worse losing months averaged (60)cents while winners averaged .42.. So you are looking at 2-3 pot odds along with your lousy odds of making that hand. The COT currently shows a mixed picture with Commercial Hedgers sporting a relatively...

Mr_Dent

Crude has been performing as anticipated over the past few days - The stars were aligning for this rally with Seasonals, Extreme Producer Merchant buying activity, Wave Formation Symmetry, and wickedly oversold technical conditions all converging to the same conclusion. I call this a state of "Unity" and it's when we have the highest odds of a successful campaign....

Mr_Dent

We've been pounding the table over the past week that a tactical shift was emerging towards inflation based trades. The PBOC liquidity injections changed the dynamics, and traders last week began bidding up base metals on the SHFE. Extreme short positioning by Leveraged funds across the commodity complex after such a washout sets the table for a profit taking...

Mr_Dent Updated 

Trader Vic's simple but effective 1-2-3 Trend Indicator is a great tool to add to your trading toolbox. We are seeing this setup take place right now in CL. It goes as follows: 1 - Break a Trend line that has been in force - CL did this last night with multiple hourly bars closing over the Down trend line connecting the highs from May24 through Friday. 2 -...

Mr_Dent Updated 

Beans like most of the Commodity complex has had a miserable H1 performance thus far - But it's during these extreme moves, that we can set up great R/R trades if we are paying attention. Many pieces are in place for a rally, except price action... So we will want price to put us into the trade. Let's review the setup. 1 - The COT report shows commercials with...

Mr_Dent Updated 

Fundamentals, Trader Positioning & Activity, and Technicals should all be in consensus before entering a trade. Sugar currently checks off 2 of the 3. 1) The Disinflationary theme that has been dominant in trader’s psyche towards commodities is poised for at minimum a reactive bounce. The PBOC has been pumping liquidity this month and traders have been reacting...

Mr_Dent

Last night you got to see the Criminal cartel in action while you, the SEC, and the CFTC are all sound asleep. While you might wake up & realize whats going on, I can assure you the regulators will continue to sleep through this one. So at 4am somebody bombs the Comex with a sale of 40k contracts. I went through 60 other Futures charts across all asset classes,...

Mr_Dent

CL is upon a very seasonally bullish time. Since 2000, Crude has sported a 62% winning % from July-Aug. With the PBOC pumping liquidity, the early signs of a tactical rally across the commodity complex appears at hand. The Producer/Merchant Category in the Disaggregated COT report scores a 100% on a 18m basis, and they continued adding longs into last weeks...

Mr_Dent Updated 

When looking for an ideal trade setup, we want to see Fundamental Catalysts, Extremes in Trader Positioning and/or Activity, as well as your preferred technical tools reaching a consensus. In Gold and Silver we are seeing all 3 factors converge to a Long Setup - And these same factors are pointing to a broad based commodity rally. 1) Without much fanfare, the...