Everyone has been watching this, so I figured I'd save a chart of it. See how it plays out. History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes!
Playing around with Fib channels, trying to find a bear target. 10.5k NQ should show some support as it's not only 62% linear retrace from Covid bottom, but 62% fib channel retrace from 2009 bottom to 2021 ATH. Below 10.5k gets steep pretty fast. Would be looking for 8800 or 7750 based on previous bottoms on the longer term fib channels, shown below.
When ETH cap approaches 50% BTC cap they both fall down. So crypto should be reaching a peak soon. Each time ETH holds up a little better than BTC. When BTC gets a bit closer, one of these 50% cap crosses will continue on ward until ETH cap crosses BTC cap, The Flippening. However, until that happens, I must assume they both sell off at the cross.
ETH log chart has a lot of bearish potential here, while crypto sentiment is turning very bullish. Bulls are looking for a B leg up here, but if that fails it could follow a very similar fractal, circled in white with yellow bar pattern. There's a huge volume gap in the $800-$1k range so it should spend some time there, but that may not be the bottom. $300 is...
This appears to be a Three Drives Up pattern, which is typically a topping pattern and may not follow through well at the bottom of a bear market; but I still expect some pullback to at least 50% retrace ~11100 or 62% ~11000. 11100 POC should show some support regardless of how far it runs. on a little longer TF there's also a POC around 11.2k. Pattern fails if...
There's a lot of confluence here and a lot of reason to believe this is likely bottom, or close to it, for at least a couple weeks. We've got: Bull Butterfly harmonic, Weekly Dragonfly Doji candle, 2yr VAL, & 61.8% retrace from Covid low. As always, we can't fully trust the first 3 days off a bottom, but we'll be looking for high volume bull follow through and...
It's looking like 5 of 5 waves is nearing completion. Retrace to 11.2k or 11.3k and finding support would be mega bullish. However 11.3k bounce could set up a rising wedge for a bigger bear move Fri/Mon, around 11.7-11.8k. 11.2k retrace and support would establish a more healthy and sustainable channel. If it breaks the channel either way, the idea is invalid....
4hr DXY is failing the regression curve and 2nd Linear Regression, which will signal a bear move of some sort. Target 110-111
NDTW = the percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks above their 20D Moving Averages NDFI = " " 50D MAs NDOH = " " 100D MAs NDTH = " " 200D MAs I noticed NDTW was at 1 for the first time since Covid bottom, where it only spent a week bouncing a round down there; but this is closer to the 2008 crash. So I examined that. When NDTW went under 5% in 2008 for the first ...
The Forex markets have been playing games with the U.S. Indexes; but weighted by DXY, the markets actually look much stronger, especially on the latest leg down. Possible IHS if it reverses soon. The signal up top is the difference between DXY weighted and USD weighted. If you scroll out you'll notice there's never been this much discrepancy between the two.
AAII has an excel spreadsheet of their sentiment survey that goes all the way back to 1987. Last week was the highest bearish sentiment week they've ever had at 60.87%! www.aaii.com In 2000 the highest bear sentiment it ever got was 51.1%. In the week ending 10/9/08 it peaked at 60.84%. The US100 jumped 15% the next week, but the bottom was a month...
Make of this what you will. I'm leaning toward a drop in VIX rather than running to great depression levels from here.
If it's anything like 2000 and 2008, the monthly fast stoch should stay oversold no more than 15 months. However, in the case of 2000, this doesn't necessarily mean bottom; that came at 24 months. The true bottom is to be confirmed by blackcat's "Whale Jumping Out of the Ocean" indicator, which I highly recommend. If the channel from 2008 breaks, QQQ ~260, there...
This excerpt is from How To Sell Stocks Short by William J. O'Neill. He's describing his famous "follow-through day" tp confirm reversals. It's a short and sweet read with tons of chart examples. smile.amazon.com The "volume-drop-off = reversal" phenomenon might not be explicitly stated in the book, but is self-evident and demonstrated in the ideas below.
The amount of houses on the market and the death of Mortgage Backed Securities seems to be the elephant in the room once again, like 2008. Nobody is talking about it. Pundits dismiss it, cause "we had tighter loan requirements for 0% mortgages"; yeah and no anks want to hold those low-yield mortgage,s as the $SPMB chart shows. They'd rather buy your house back...
Can't post an idea with 1min charts, but I'll show it below. Whenever you see 1min candles with huge wicks that seem to settle instantly, they are Darkpool transactions. It means some big money decided buy/sell a large block and found a seller/buyer in the darkpool. They agreed on a price that is roughly half of the candle's range. The transaction is already...
It should test the neckline again at least. From there it's anyone's guess, but I'm leaning bearish. September Trip witch is right around the corner and the market pivoted down right at August Monthly expiry. Perhaps it slides into Trip Witch and bounces out. Should be another inflection point either way.
Whenever ETH market cap approaches 50% of BTC market cap, the BTC-ETH plot in yellow, there is a sell off. However, in recent years ETH has been holding up better and gaining ground on BTC. This means money is flowing from BTC into ETH. As BTC-ETH nears 0 we should finally see ETH break out above it. Perhaps even this time! However there should be more pain in the...