MarlosClock

MarlosClock Updated 

In 2008 the Market rallied after the Bear Stearns collapse near March Trip Witch. Other banks stepped in to buy it up and disaster was averted! Or rather a 6 month stay of execution for the rest of them... The week of Sept 15th Lehman Bros collapsed, followed the next week by WaMu, then the next day by Wachovia. Wachovia would've probably survived if the other...

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QCOM was the hottest stock of 1999, and had a similar fall from grace as the biggest tech names of the time, if not faster. Some of the top tech stocks by market cap were: MSFT, CSCO, INTC & IBM I believe in a 2-3 year bear market, but we are pretty close to 2000 levels in a lot of major Tech stocks already. A lot of people wanna sell it to the floor as fast as...

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Metal bulls aren't well versed on the history of metal spoofing and the reason they do it, vault insurance limits. Allow me to educate you. www.justice.gov “With this verdict, the Department has secured convictions of ten former traders at Wall Street financial institutions, including JPMorgan, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, The Bank of Nova...

MarlosClock Updated 

VIX looks forward 30D and VIX1YR looks forward 1YR. So the divergence between them (VIX1YR-VIX) is interesting. On a monthly timeframe it seems to make an excellent Spy pivot indicator. It's noisier, but works on lower TFs as well.

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MarlosClock

Just a quick intro to adding comparisons to your chart and changing scales. Right-click on the scales on the right to access their settings menus.

MarlosClock Updated 

Out of all the indexes the FTSE one has the cleanest looking 5-3-5 pattern. Perfect ABC to the vwap from top. A pivot here should start another long 5-wave down. 5th wave extension will cover the most ground on capitulation.

MarlosClock Updated 

History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes... I copied the bar pattern twice and pasted it for a general bearish plot. May see a relief bounce Friday, but I suspect more down follows next week. Any large deviation would invalidate it. These fractals, & plots in general, tend to get less accurate the further out they run. I didn't short based off of this alone, but...

MarlosClock

MOVE is showing the Highest Bond Market Volatility Since Lehman Bros Collapse. In 2008 the market capitulated 2 weeks later. Perhaps the bail-ins and bail-outs will prevent problems, or perhaps not. Keep your eyes peeled this month. FOMC next week and Trip Witch options expiry Friday.

MarlosClock Updated 

See how working age population leveled off ~200M and job openings up top sky rocketed. Boomers retired and died form Covid. It's not gonna recover any time soon. Population is gonna shrink along with tax receipts. Meanwhile spending will only increase. The U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve have been calling it an "Unsustainable Fiscal Path" since 2018 at least....

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It's no coincidence that crypto bottomed when stimulus checks got cut; and US personal savings(USPS) sky rocketed to many multiples over the previous ATH. You see where the money went and disappeared. It took crypto prices with it and it's not likely to rally much without some serious cash influx via stimulus and/or rate cuts. So best case it ranges in the...

MarlosClock Updated 

Every major crash in modern history came after rate hikes completed. Either during the plateau or during the first cuts. No bulls can explain how we're going to avoid that fate this time. We hiked twice as fast as 2007 and 2018 hikes, yet somehow there's gonna be a soft landing? Yeah right LOL It's already looking like a broadening wedge like 2000; and about to...

MarlosClock

2022 weekly looks a lot like 2000 daily. It's starting to take detours, but if you removed the red box and pasted the blue box from where it dropped, it matches up with 2000 pretty well still. I wouldn't use this to trade, but it's interesting how close the structure is.

MarlosClock

1: Is the local high put and acts as a major support. QQQ 290 Notice all calls are smoked there, so they got squeezed first thing Monday. Sometimes it'll push past the high interest levels by a half measure if there's some opposing interest at or near the same strike. However the call interest is super low at and around 290. So this one stopped just shy, didn't...

MarlosClock Updated 

Pattern fails if it breaks out above 4000, and bear trend fails above the POC ~4015. Otherwise look down for 3900 1.6 fib and 3825 2.6 fib. Interesting that it made a mini bear megaphone pattern that failed at pivot 1, but the volatility created and even larger pattern. Megaphones have a habit of doing that because of the wild swings. So if it fails perhaps...

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I know it's so simple you can't believe it! Is it magic? Is the Devil running the Stock Market!?! Nope, what you're seeing is the all-pervasive 50% Principle in action! www.investopedia.com "It states that if an asset drops after a price increase, it will lose between 50% and 67% of recent price gains before rebounding. " So over any given range, the retrace...

MarlosClock

I know it's so simple you can't believe it! Is it magic? Is the Devil running the Stock Market!?! Nope, what you're seeing is the all-pervasive 50% Principle in action! www.investopedia.com "It states that if an asset drops after a price increase, it will lose between 50% and 67% of recent price gains before rebounding. " So over any given range, the retrace...

MarlosClock Updated 

NG is way under it's 33yr POC of $2.57 and near the Value Area Low VAL. I'm stepping into it slowly, as it could dip quite a bit more, maybe as low as $1.50 helped by DXY running up. However, long term it should be safe to enter around $2. First target is the VAH ~ $4.

MarlosClock Updated 

Most of the FOMC focus is on the rate announcement and press conference, but I found the minutes actually make better pivots. It's especially clear on the weekly chart. I expect this one to be bear, but will roll with it either way. Which way do you see it?