MarkLefevre

MarkLefevre

Until 2014-2015, the US Dollar index, the "DXY", followed a remarkably consistent sinusoidal pattern of long term cycles. One's 2014 self could be forgiven for holding a strong belief that this pattern would repeat itself, but this time it did something different. Instead of peaking in line with the trend and reverting like a good complex system always should,...

MarkLefevre

This is the log of the difference between the 80 Week SMA and the 20 Week SMA and its first derivative (slope) on the BTCUSD chart The white line = and the red and green waves are the first derivative of said measurement. This measurement quite clearly indicates that we are moving out of a bear market and into a bull market.

MarkLefevre

This is a chart of the Natural Log of the YOY Running ROI of BTCUSD/SPX: Ln The pattern formed is striking in that the tops and bottoms both form perfectly linear patterns going back to the creation of Bitcoin. Using the same steep slope this indicator had at the end of the last 2 cycles indicates a value of -2.07 at the end of this cycle, if the pattern...

MarkLefevre

Using the SPX as an inflation deflator yields this chart showing the recent action for Bitcoin as a bounce off a lowest lower low which coincides exactly with the last cycle top in 2018. It also shows a clear top this cycle in April and the subsequent top in non-adjusted terms as a normal bear market rebound.

MarkLefevre

Yield curve on a log scale Us 10 Year minus US 2 year (the yield curve) monthly logarithmic chart. Clear linearities at the top of the range and at the bottom of the range. Indicates we are currently at a bottom. Closest analog is the early 2000's period.

MarkLefevre

I was surprised to see recent action following this random(?) trend line I drew 1 year ago. It's equally spaced from the upper trend line that closely follows some of the past action near lows. Probably a random coincidence, but perhaps has some value.

MarkLefevre

Copy and paste of every bars pattern when Bitcoin crossed the upper mid-cycle power function regression line (R^2=.99.) This is the regression of every Bitcoin bottom price minus the very first cycle (what I call cycle 0.) The other blue regression lines (all >R^2=.99) are regressions of every possible choice of Bitcoin bottom prices. For example, different data...

MarkLefevre

This is the same as the last chart, but with mid-cycle data used for the regression iterations. The blue circles indicate the data points used. All R^2 values were > .99 Separate regressions were performed including and not including the first mid-cycle data. The range of outcomes is wider as a result.

MarkLefevre

This is a power function regression of tops and bottoms. There is a separate regression for open, high, low, and close values for tops and bottoms. There is a separate regression for each possible iteration of bottoms ( both bottoms of a double bottom, only the lowest bottoms of a double bottom, the first bottom of a double bottom, etc.) The green circles show...

MarkLefevre

This is the 2015 Pi-Cycle Bottom Indicator copy and pasted over the current price and aligned with yesterday's crossing. There are some similarities between the price action in 2015 and now. If something similar plays out, we may see some significant downside in the next few days. This wouldn't be a surprise as the CPI print yesterday was 9.1% and downside in most...

MarkLefevre

The Pi-Cycle Bottom will most likely cross tomorrow. If the indicator remains predictive, and consistent with itself, the bottom should occur within a few days of it crossing. This would imply significant downside coinciding with an important CPI/Fed meeting this week. There is precedent for the indicator crossing and BTCUSD falling -40% within the following...

MarkLefevre

Running 1 Year ROI for BTC/SPX Idea from Ben Cowen's Running ROI 1 for BTC Extrema linearities

MarkLefevre

This bodes ill for BTCUSD at a time when housing prices and rent are a national policy priority

MarkLefevre

The white line is the 14 period RSI that you are used to overlaid on price. You can clearly see that it has never been beneath an 18 day candle other than at macro, cycle, bottoms.

MarkLefevre

The ratio of both crypto fidelity ETFs to their spot products is rising dramatically, with their met averse etc rising 80% relative to Total3.

MarkLefevre

USOIL/BTC ratio could be a useful indicator of Bitcoin cycle bottoms. This is made with TradingView curves, so it might be meaningless. It would be more meaningful with a curve made with regression analysis and an equation with an R^2 value. If a real relationship exists then this ratio indicates that Bitcoin is close to a bottom and the beginning of another...