Lunatikfringe

Lunatikfringe

I'd love for anyone to offer any alternate counts to this.

Lunatikfringe

This is a chart of spot gold, but looking at GC futures, the door is closed on bull run, as price broke down past terminal point of triangle wave e.

Lunatikfringe

the move lower from 1765 area looks very leading diagonal-ish. If this is operable count, another probable dip below 1717 for wave 1, then I would expect a really deep wave 2 retracement, then the bottom should fall out in wave 3 of 1. Look for bullish divergence on stock RSI 1 hour on dip below 1717 to indicate end of 5 of 1.

Lunatikfringe

the move lower from 1765 area looks very leading diagonal-ish. If this is operable count, another probable dip below 1717 for wave 1, then I would expect a really deep wave 2 retracement, then the bottom should fall out in wave 3 of 1. Look for bullish divergence on stock RSI 1 hour on dip below 1717 to indicate end of 5 of 1.

Lunatikfringe

Key levels: break of 1744 means we go to new highs, I'd consider 1735 if you wanted to be more agressive. I'm leaning this way. A break of 1692 (by my count, wave e of 4) means we're heading towards 1000 and potentially lower. Green horizontal are fib extensions for w,x,and y as a corrective wave. Wave y = wave w at 1711. Red horizontals are fib retracements for...

Lunatikfringe

4 solid points that should act as a price magnet and serve as support on the turn.

Lunatikfringe

Working wave y of e down. Elliot wave common relationship of corrective 3 wave form: Wave Y reaches equality with wave W at 1687 so 1687 is my first projected endpoint of wave e. Another common relationship of converging triangles is wave e = .618 x wave c. That endpoint projection would be 1680 which is also on a/c trendline. So atm I'm waiting for price to get...

Lunatikfringe

Elliot wave rule is that wave 3 cannot be shortest wave between waves 1, 3, and 5. If the current move down is to be in 5 wave form, wave 1 is from 1709 to 1697 (approx $12), then this move wave 3 from 1701 needs to go further than $12 or wave 5 would be limited. I need a break o f 1689 here so that wave 5 can arguably run. No break of 89 before another area of...

Lunatikfringe

My Elliot count has wave d complete but lacking confirmation until break of 1711. Wave e could be anywhere from 1700 down to 1662. Trump is speaking soon after report. If he mentions a new big stimulus, wave e likely won't have much time to develop. A break below 1661 breaks triangle pattern. A break above wave b confirms triangle down and price up to higher levels.

Lunatikfringe

cleaned charts up.

Lunatikfringe

Triangle: wave c was .786 of wave a and wave d at 1720 is = .618 of wave b. Very text book triangle relationships. At origin of wave 1, triangle measures approx 100

Lunatikfringe

Don't bet on it. PA has touched the top line of trend channel 3 times and each time price has reverted past midpoint of channel. It remains to be seen if price will follow through this 4th time.

Lunatikfringe

Next wave is 3rd of 3rd of 3rd. A rise in price beyond 1722 breaks my count.

Lunatikfringe

looking for 2 throw-overs as well

Lunatikfringe

Looks and feels to me that this current wave has gone too far for too long to be a 3rd of 3rd of 3rd. I tried to figure out a plausible running flat but that doesn't fit either. Still waiting to see. I'll give up on my count and switch to triangle and another high if price breaks 1722.

Lunatikfringe Updated 

I can count 5 waves down from 1722, contained by parallel lines, that meets minimum expectation of exceeding length of wave 1 of 3 by a few dollars. Subsequently, price action has broken out of the channel which indicates wave 4 of 3 has begun. All sorts of resistance above....structural, trendline, fib.... However, over lap with wave 1, just above the fib .382...

Lunatikfringe

1.618 fib extension of wave 1 projects 1600 in wave 3 of wave 1 of C. Potential to go much further. I tried to clean up chart as much as I could.

Lunatikfringe

I labeled the recent swing high, the big B at 1748, of an ABC correction from the year 2011? high at ~$1900. So I'm working the recent decline as the beginning of big wave C down to complete that correction to levels very near and likely below $1000 at it's conclusion. I think gold should be valued at $5000, but I think it will get clubbed technically to below...