LachlanGO

LachlanGO

AUSUSD has had a stellar run since late October, benefitting from the risk-on environment and following equity markets higher. A weaker USD and falling US yields as traders’ position for a Fed pivot also being a strong tailwind. AUDUSD is now sitting in the 2023 “resistance zone” where upward momentum has faltered previously. Also of note is an extreme overbought...

LachlanGO

USDJPY had a decent drop on the dovish FOMC result on Wednesday. More downside could be ahead though if we look at the US10Y-JP10Y rate differential that has an extremely strong correlation with this pair. The last time the differential was this low was July '23, USDJPY was trading with a 140 handle back then.

LachlanGO

A hawkish hold from the RBNZ today has seen AUDNZD push into the "Buy Zone" for building a mean reversion position. Has been a reliable trade in 2023 and beyond. For less risk, traders can wait to see if the second buy zone (dark green) gets tagged.

LachlanGO

A recent rally in AUDUSD came to a halt on Tuesday at the key resistance at the 200 day SMA. We've seen a rally today but Yield differentials between the AU10Y and US10Y suggest we may have further to go and a test of the 0.6590 resistance level my be the next stop.

LachlanGO

The Aussie had a big week last week as falling US yields dragged down the USD and saw risk sentiment improve giving AUDUSD a double boost. At the start of the week it looked like AUDUSD was boing to test the lower band of its 3-month range and the major support at 0.63, only to dramatically turn around to test the upper band and major resistance at around 0.65...

LachlanGO

Looking at the AUDUSD 4-hour chart a double top of testing the major resistance level is forming with both tops having entered the extreme RSI overbought level. A repeat of the early November retracement back to the range mid-price of 0.6400 is looking a possibility for this pair unless we see another sell-off of the US Dollar. The sole tier 1 news release out of...

LachlanGO

The last time we had a run up to this ratio in 2022 the BTCETH ratio had a sharp pullback to the 2-year mean of 16 and lower. ETHUSD is showing a bit of strength, BTCUSD some exhaustion and the price action is looking similar, we could see a repeat. Short 1 BTCUSD , long 18 ETHUSD if you want to play this.

LachlanGO

The chart below shows the strong relationship between the inverted US 10-Year yield and gold and is clear where haven demand and risk premium pushed gold higher away from the fundamental relationship it has with this yield (highlighted in orange box). This gives us a clue of where the fair value of gold is without the conflict driven buying. A trading opportunity...

LachlanGO

The last 4 months has had some great range trading opportunities in AUDUSD. Major resistance around 0.6500 and Major Support at 0.6300 have been tested and held multiple times. Get short in the Red zone , Long in the Green Zone if you think these levels will hold.. Stops outside with some room for false breaks, TP at the mid price of 0.6400

LachlanGO

USDJPY has dropped below the "Intervention" 150 level. Price action in this pair has mostly been driven by the differential between the US 10-year treasury yield and the Japanese JGB 10-year yield. After last weeks steep drop in the US 10-year yield, and a gain in the JGB yield on the back of the BoJ YCC tweak this differential has tightened dramatically. It is...