Since rollover to december contract the price is falling. On last friday there was potential confirmation of weekly imbalance. The scenario for fast downfall is possible as it's 6th attempt to break below 15600 in actual quarter. I wouldn't be supprised if we see 15k soon. However, the levels and scenarios are nothing if day trade conditions are not met.
15735-15750 is very important zone for bulls today. It's a key area to keep up-pulse that started on friday afternoon. Long term consolidation is supporting this idea as the price bounced from the very bottom of that consolidation.
As always, I will be ready to change the approach if the scenario falls.
Yesterday at the same level where we are now, sellers showed up, but they didn't create new low. This means they are not strong as they were in previous week so I expect uncertain session or testing higher levels. Bearish scenario should be confirmed by getting out below yesterday's Value Area.
Strong selling activity in previous week could be stopped at 4350, but there is Volume Gape below this level so market participant would be willing to fulfill it. Every level should be confirmed with day trade conditions.
Previous week was really bearish as I expected. There is still possibility to continue this type of distribution, but 15430 is important level from yearly timeframe so sellers may some reasons to cover shorts. I do not expect strong reversal but I will be ready for evetything as always !
Every level means nothing if daily context is in opposite.
I see 4480-4490 as a very important level for incoming week. We are at the very low point in last down-swing but as we could see, bulls didn't show up.
Continuation is possible if prices below 480 are accepted by market.
Bulls and bears found the fair price in previous week. It can be signal of total uncerteinty or just market's participators had to build the base before next downside pulse. I will be aware of possible responsive activity when the price gets out of previous week value area (yellow) but still, I'm more bearish for incoming week unles buyers will lead the market...
Hypo 1 and 2 mean trading in previous day Value Area as market can be uncertain.
Hypo 3 - pulse to resistance from D1 timeframe if prices above PDVA are accepted.
Hypo 4 - previous week's trend continuation
In previous week the market was quite uncertain. There was a up-pulse but it can be erased very easily. As always, I'm prepared for both directions and I plan setups with day trade conditions.
It is not clear that bears will lead the market as we are in long term up-trend. I marked importand levels and possible scenarios for incoming week. Every price level mean nothing if daily trade conditions are not met.
As I mentioned on chart, I see some bearish signals and I will be ready for shorts more than usual. All levels mean nothing if daily trade setup conditions are not met.
Bears are stopped on VPOC from couple weeks ago. Scenarios as on chart. I will buy above 4548.5 or sell below 4533 if signal from day trading conditions appears.
Bears reached my target after long down swing. I see 3 scenarios:
1) Testing demand zone again
2) Uncertainty - trading around opening price
3) Bouncing Up a little higher
