Itsallsotiresome

Itsallsotiresome

VIX at the weekly view. I didn't have time to write this last week due to a hectic schedule. Better late than never, I guess. The VIX broke the weekly resistance and bounced from the pivot zone (white line). A smaller VIX spike is in progress. No, I am not expecting above 40 at all. Maybe mid-30s at the higher end. It would be nice if I am wrong so more...

Itsallsotiresome

VIX at the weekly view. I didn't have time to write this last week due to a hectic schedule. Better late than never, I guess. The VIX broke the weekly resistance and bounced from the pivot zone (white line). A smaller VIX spike is in progress. No, I am not expecting above 40 at all. Maybe mid-30s at the higher end. It would be nice if I am wrong so more...

Itsallsotiresome

Spot VIX. Daily view. The VIX is beginning to behave like it did in 2020-2021. A bullish RSI divergence is beginning to form. The RSI is trending slightly higher while the VIX is trending down. Usually, this is the first step to a VIX spike to form. That doesn't mean a large VIX spike might happen tomorrow. Usually, this pattern takes several days to resolve. I...

Itsallsotiresome

VIX at the daily view. It looks like the red resistance has been working, for now. I've been shorting VX futures whenever the VIX crossed the red line. However, this red line has a time limit. It becomes less relevant as we get closer to September. It might be sooner... but that's too hard to tell. As stated before, it will be hard for the VIX to achieve 50 -...

Itsallsotiresome

ES Daily. First off, most traders are not economists. In fact, most retail traders are (ironically) financially illiterate. For example, can you answer the difference between monetarist theory and Keynesian Economics theory? Do you know the difference between a 10K or a 10Q? The reason why I'm making these statements is because most traders seem to confident in...

Itsallsotiresome

VIX at the daily view. VIX finally broke its downtrend and RSI downtrend. It seem to have bounced off of the white pivot line (for now). April seems to be set as a rollercoaster of a month. There is earnings season which provides some liquidity. At the same time, the US tax deadline is coming up (April 18th). The wealthy usually wait until the last minute to...

Itsallsotiresome

ES. Daily view. First off, you can't solve supply chain issues (Keynesian economics) with rate hikes. Rate hikes might slow down some demand due to lack of cheap credit, but this type of inflation goes much deeper than just the Fed's money printing. Economies are complex beasts that don't have one simple cause or answer. Even the 2008 Recession had several...

Itsallsotiresome

Spot VIX. Daily view. I'm seeing a lot more posts on Twitter, Facebook, Trading View, and other social media about VIX and VX. What I see in those posts... are a lot of lies. Why do I say that? Their explanation as to why the VIX was rising or kept elevated. As stated before, VIX will remain relatively elevated for longer periods of time in 2022. There are 4...

Itsallsotiresome

ES weekly. Degen is a slang for degenerate gamblers. Many degens were born from the 2020-2021 bull run. In a bull market, everyone is a genius. In a bear or volatile market, only those who practice risk management survive. The new traders will find out very soon as to why very few people make it in trading long-term. As stated in the VIX post, the market cares...

Itsallsotiresome

VIX at the daily view. I know it's been awhile since I posted. I've been buried in work. This year will be a transitionary year unlike last year. Twitter, Facebook, and other social media keeps comparing this to 1929 which is an intellectually lazy comparison. For example, bankers back in the 1920s were glorified accountants and the Federal Reserve didn't have...

Itsallsotiresome

BTC, TIP/TLT, XLF, and EURJPY at the weekly view. I will try to make this simple. Bitcoin was created as a hedge against the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Easing (money printing). Bitcoin evolved into an inflation hedge over the years. Each inflation scare at the time (2011, 2013, 2016-2017, and 2021) saw Bitcoin rising dramatically. Why? Let's look at the...

Itsallsotiresome

VIX at the daily view. As I stated back in early spring, 2021 would be the year of disappointment. Permabulls don't get their miracle returns like in 2020. Permabears don't get their 2020 style crash. There would be many boring days with episodes of volatility. How did I know this? It's because these conditions were similar to 2010 and I remember...

Itsallsotiresome

ES at the 8 hour view. As I stated back in early spring, 2021 would be the year of disappointment. Permabulls don't get their miracle returns like in 2020. Permabears don't get their 2020 style crash. There would be many boring days with episodes of volatility. How did I know this? It's because these conditions were similar to 2010 and I remember...

Itsallsotiresome

VIX at the weekly. The yellow circle was the end of that wedge. Looks like I still got it. Thought, this volatility shouldn't be a surprise at all. February-March, June, and September are seasonally the most volatile months of the year. Twitter and other forums are chanting the world is ending. This is just seasonal volatility. Think about it from a financial...

Itsallsotiresome

NQ at the daily view. Back in summer 2020, I mentioned that inflation would be coming. It's here now. That said, this is short-term inflation. The M2SL (money supply) might be vertically up. However, the M2V (velocity of money) is also almost vertically down. You need both of them up to cause runaway inflation. In an analogy, that's like having a lot of gasoline...

Itsallsotiresome

ES at the daily view. Back in summer 2020, I mentioned that inflation would be coming. It's here now. That said, this is short-term inflation. The M2SL (money supply) might be vertically up. However, the M2V (velocity of money) is also almost vertically down. You need both of them up to cause runaway inflation. In an analogy, that's like having a lot of gasoline...

Itsallsotiresome

Bitcoin at the weekly (logarithmic) view. Logarithmic scale handles volatility over long periods of time (investment strategy). Linear scale handles shorter-term periods (trading). Let's simplify this. 1. Green dashed line has been the 2020 trend line. If BTC closes below here, then we might see a test to the mid-$20k. 2. Blue lines with dashed white lines are...

Itsallsotiresome Updated 

BTCUSD at the weekly view. The media and talking heads announced the end the of Bitcoin... for the 415th time in the past 10 years. That last part is not a joke or sarcasm. That number probably went higher as I typed this post. Why was Bitcoin created? The long story short, Bitcoin was created from the distrust of big banks, big government, and the infinite...