Goose96

Goose96

Similar to my SPX idea, the NDX seems to be forming a 5-wave impulse off the back of the AI enthusiasm. I expect a bullish pullback to pull the index lower towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $14,000 which will flip from a resistance to a support. A break below $14,000 will allow the index to slide into the support range between $13,500 and $13,700. A...

Goose96

The 2Q2023 was a strong one for the SPX with index gaining roughly 6% in the quarter and it has started the 3Q2023 on the front foot which allowed the index break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $4,260. The strong start to 3Q2023 is off the back of a strong NFP’s print and the end to the monthslong political battle in Washington. President Biden...

Goose96

The DXY has completed a ABC corrective pattern after catching support on the black 61.8% Fibo retracement level of 101.824. The greenback now looks set to start another 5-wave impulse higher which could see the DXY climb higher and re-test the 50-week MA level of 105.737. The DXY is currently testing the first resistance rate, the green 23.6% Fibo retracement...

Goose96

The dollar rally in May allowed the DXY to break above the blue 61.8% Fibo rate of 103.915 and the dollar rally looks ready to take a breather after touching a high of 104.695. In terms of technical indictors, the daily MACD is rolling over and a sell signal seems imminent. The RSI is also turning after touching the overbought level at 80.00 which is supportive of...

Goose96 Updated 

Background (a quick look back): The rand's covid recovery, on the back of the Fed’s QE infinity policy and a strong commodities rally, ended in June 2021 after the rand managed to pull the pair to a low of 13.40. The rand got hit by a quick one-two in the middle of 2021 as the DXY found support around 90.00 and the local riots in July which saw the local unit...

Goose96

Support at 18.21, which coincides with 50-day MA and 61.8% Fibo is holding support. A failed break below 18.21 will allow the pair to retest the resistance range between 18.48 and 18.55. A break below 18.21 will however see the pair slide back between the support range between 18.00 and 18.10. For a more detailed analysis see the linked idea.

Goose96

It is guaranteed to be a volatile week given the stacked economic calendar. Tonight, the Fed is expected to hike interest rates by 25bps, and on Friday we have the always highly anticipated US non-farm payroll data. As per my previous idea, I got the timing wrong for my expected move to 18.55 but I’m still holding my buy orders in placed around the 18.21 level...

Goose96 Updated 

The pair is currently testing the top of the blue downward channel. A break above 18.40 will allow for a move higher north of 18.50 while a break below 18.21 will invalidate this move higher. I’m personally positioning myself for more rand weakness and a move north of 18.50 given the current risk-off back drop. My strategy is to place buy limit orders around the...

Goose96 Updated 

The support level of 18.01 held its ground last week and the rand has been on the backfoot so far this week. The pair climbed to a high of 18.33 (the support turned resistance on the 23.6% Fibo level) on Monday. Although the rand managed to pull the pair lower onto the 50% Fibo level at 18.11, I believe there is further losses on the cards for the rand as the week...

Goose96

Yesterday’s pullback was a bit deeper than expected following the US initial jobless claims result. The US jobless claims came in higher than expected and coupled with the lower-than-expected US CPI results from earlier this week, markets are betting on a Fed rate pause sooner than initially anticipated. My record of trying to predict the Fed has been poor so I’ll...

Goose96

The USDZAR pair completed an ABC corrective wave at the end of March after the higher-than-expected 50bps rate hike from the SARB allowed the rand to pull the pair into the support range between the 50%- and 38.2% Fibo retracement rates at 17.68 and 17.92, respectively. Since the start of April, the dollar (DXY) has found some support in the range between 101.36...

Goose96

The SARB will release their latest interest rate decision on Thursday and expectations are pointing to another 25bps hike which will push the repo rate to 7.50%. I haven’t posted an idea on the pair in quite a while but a whole lot has happened since my last idea. March has been a very turbulent month for the local unit, but the rand is holding up relatively...

Goose96

I originally predicted the dollar to pull the pair back to parity, but I may have to invalidate that prediction. Currently the pair seems to be forming a cup and handle pattern. The handle will allow the dollar to pull the pair back onto the critical support at 1.07, the 61.8% Fibo retracement rate. This rate also coincides with the blue 23.6% Fibo and the 50-day...

Goose96 Updated 

I’m just revising my previous idea. My view for a pullback has not changed. On the 4h the MACD looks set to cross to a sell signal while we still have a degree of bearish divergence on the RSI. A break below 18.35 will allow the rand to pull the pair lower towards the 23.6 Fibo rate at 18.10. I do however expect some support in the range between 18.17 and 18.22....

Goose96

Technical indicators and fundamentals are lining up for a reasonable rand pull back as per my previous idea. I expect the rand to pull the pair lower onto the 23.6% Fibo retracement rate and psychological rate of 18.00. A break below 18.00 will see the pair fall onto the critical support on the blue 61.8% Fibo retracement rate of 17.84 which coincide with the...

Goose96

Referring back to my long-term idea posted in January (linked below “1H2023 USD/ZAR weekly timeframe”) I believe that the pair has started its 5th impulse wave higher towards the 2020 high around the 19.30’s after the failed break below the critical support rate of 16.80. The rand has depreciated for five consecutive weeks since mid-January which has seen the...

Goose96

The dollar had a turbulent week last due to stronger than expected US CPI and PPI prints along with hawkish sentiments from the Fed’s mouthpieces. This saw the DXY swing in a wide range between 102.586 and 104.727 before ultimately closing the week roughly 0.4% higher at 103.884. The neckline from the 2022 uptrend along with the blue 50% Fibo retracement level at...

Goose96

The price of platinum has since January 2023 nose-dived by roughly 16% which has seen the metal fall below its 200-day MA price of $947.60 to touch lows around $910 in Feb. The metal is however finding some support on the green 61.8% Fibo retracement level of $922.85 and the longer-term blue 23.6% Fibo. Technical indicators are supporting a move higher for the...