Finchcliffe

Finchcliffe

Kiwi has been on a great run but I'm seeing this come to the top of it's range and expecting a correction, whilst at the same time seeing Aussie building momentum, so I'm thinking this is a good pair to trade this week. We have quite a lot of fundamentals, with RBA and RBNZ meetings, but I think overall price action will look like this when everything balances...

Finchcliffe Updated 

Seeing this pair reject from either the current local resistance boundary or if not the longer term descending trendline. I'm expecting NZD weakness in the coming week so monitoring LTF's carefully. I believe we'll be dropping down from either 0.538 or 0.543, a break above this latter number could signify reversal.

Finchcliffe

Looks like USDJPY has broken down through the rising trendline, there was a slight recovery at the backend of Friday, this indicates we could see a short retracement from here to test the trendline break, and then down. The Yen performed well at the start of Friday, I don't believe this was BoJ intervention, as they have said that they expect the fundamentals to...

Finchcliffe

The DXY had a bad week last week and I believe this could be the start of a more sustained downward trajectory. Conversely Swissie has been on retracement for several weeks against most crosses, but we are seeing a broad recovery. My view is we're continuing to the downside, so I'm getting in short with a LTF confirmation next week.

Finchcliffe Updated 

Expecting strength from the Aussie this week, even though the RBA hiked, I think the Aussie was negatively affected by the fall in commodities rates in the past week. I see no strength in the Euro and I think Friday's candle suggests that this pair may not break back into my ascending channel, this could form a double top too. Tuesday EUR GDP data - could be...

Finchcliffe Updated 

We're at the top end of the range for this pair, I am expecting BoJ to start backing its currency. I've recently noticed some negative correlation between USDJPY and the other XXXJPY crosses, so where USDJPY falls the others have been more bullish. That said if the BoJ get involved it will tank all of them. I'm not 100% what I really think will happen here, I...

Finchcliffe Updated 

Had a great breakout of the falling wedge that I called out in an earlier idea (I missed the trade as it happened sooner than I expected), but now I believe we'll fall back from resistance (we can see some rejection on the daily) before confirming the trend change higher. No real fundamentals for this, pure price action.

Finchcliffe

I see GBP as continuing to be weak, poor GDP data last week, hikes expected to be over, and expecting to see some CHF strength. BoE interest rates this week, but with the market expecting hiking to be over, I don't think it matters what happens, sterling will fall. We saw a move above my descending trendline, seeing this as possibly a fake out - we've broken...

Finchcliffe Updated 

Not sure if this is the big short or not yet, but looking at price action it's been a jog up to this point, rather than a sprint, this tells me we're fine to short until at least the ascending dynamic trendline that reversed the last short. We have an engulfing candle on the 1 hour, followed by a long-body doji, so I think we're going to see a push down. If we...

Finchcliffe

Looks like another rejection, could be a HL, but expecting a continuation of the retracements from here now that minor support is broken.

Finchcliffe Updated 

That fundamentals last week had a serious impact on this pair. The FED held rates with a dovish tone, and then the cooling labour market data slammed the USD. The BoE also held rates, but with a hawkish tone. UK data is not great, USD real yields are stronger, and there are still global tensions which are normally strong for the dollar, that said, this pair has...

Finchcliffe Updated 

I don't believe the BoJ have gotten involved yet, or if they have it's going under the radar. I believe this pair has only slipped due to USD retracement following the NFP and softer labour market data last week. With retailers now net short I think that we'll see another push back up. We have broken my rising wedge line related idea, however unless we break...

Finchcliffe Updated 

As we can see from the chart this pair has been in a long-term downtrend, and we're now at the top of the falling channel. We've seen support hold around 0.797 so my target will be just above this for a short position this week, a break above 0.8215 will invalidate, breaking both the channel and creating a HH, so this would suggest a potential reversal. I'm...

Finchcliffe Updated 

Looking at gold I think we're seeing a classic candlestick formation, signifying continued momentum. The significant rise of gold due to risk-off geo-political factors has created the pole, profit-taking and uncertainty at these higher levels has caused a slight retracement, however the bears can't take control, which is causing the pennant (LH's with...

Finchcliffe

We can see we've just broken out of my channel top after a strong bullish move, but this isn't the first time and we're hitting strong resistance. Swissie has been weak of late, unlike the Aussie, so I believe this can go either way. I'll be looking at longs around 0.589 if resistance is broken, but we may well fall back first. If we fall back below 0.578 then...

Finchcliffe Updated 

As we can see price has is currently respecting the descending trendline again. I'm expecting the BoE to maintain their hike-pause stance, this result is already baked into the price... I'm placing a small trade on the basis that my expectations will be correct... If there's a pause or reduction (highly unlikely) I'm expecting a fall back to around 1.208 to...

Finchcliffe

I'm buying this now, GBP has been strong against all crosses and is standing up really well (compared to EUR / JPY etc) against an improving dollar (which I don't think will last). I think we're gonna see GBP spike, let's see.

Finchcliffe Updated 

Been watching this pair for a while, I'm noticing the Swissie generally weaken against it's crosses, many look ready for a reversal to me. CADCHF has been trading in a range, we can see daily failures at the current level which suggests to me we're about to bounce up so I'm looking for a buy on LTF's. I first posted this idea on the 18th October, it now looks...