I updated the VIX analysis to make it easier to see the 8 day cycle. As you can see, today's drop in the VIX is almost exactly the same as in the past 3 cycles. So, from a cycle/pattern stand point, things are right on track. It felt crazy in the market the last two todays, but I think that has more to do with which stocks are being bought and sold. In addition,...
Yesterday morning's drop of almost 1% was very much not expected based on the previous day trading, but based on the clearly cyclic pattern of 5.2 days up and 3 days down it was right on the mark. If you have been following me, then you will see that I made an addendum yesterday morning (before trading) to note this on my Wednesday night analysis. I was caught off...
See my charts on S&P 500 and VIX for more details. The pattern in the AD line are still holding just like the patterns in the S&P 500 and VIX. There was definitely some "noise" in the AD line, but overall the pattern held.
Please refer to me S&P 500 analysis for more details. The VIX followed its pattern. Things to note. 1) It did not drop as much as in previous cycles. 2) It went up more than previous cycles. To me, these are signs that these maybe signs that the market is going from bull to bear.
Building on my trend line, VIX, and AD line analysis. Trend held perfectly for the last cycle. Called a bottom of 2800, and wow hit it right on the mark! So, extrapolating this analysis to the coming week and then through the end of the month. I am not sure if the shorting of the cycle by 0.5-1 days is true or just noise. If it is true, then the pattern fits...
I have been tracking apple using both a trend line and head and shoulders pattern. First, Apple broke the trend pattern demand line significantly yesterday. That sets off some warning flags for me. Has apple's bull run come to an end? Maybe it has finally hit oversold and headed sideways until the end of the month? Second, for fun I have been tracking Apple...
Update on my VIX analysis. The pattern held perfectly for the peak and bottom this week. Interesting to see if it holds for next week. However, note that the VIX did not go down as much this cycle. Down on 14% vs 18%. Also, it went back up 37% vs the previous of 27%. Not sure what that means. Maybe an indicator that the market still has some big moves ahead? Maybe...
Follow up on AD line analysis. FYI, I did not change the arrows in the chart at all for today. Lets see if the pattern holds for the next week.
Just an update after a fun day today. The big buying spree this morning clearly did not fit the pattern. However, the cyclic pattern in the AD eventually won out. Interesting to see how long it holds.
Follow up on last week's (5/6) VIX analysis. Predicted the S&P drop to the day a week ago! Everything holding true to form except it did not fall as much as predicted. It only fell 14% versus the last two dips where larger at 18%. Not sure if the 4% difference matters. However, as I pointed out in my SPX analysis, the pattern is very consistent. Will be...
Well, sometimes analysis and modeling works out. The S&P 500 dropped as predicted today. It fought hard all morning but gave in eventually. I don't understand what is causing this cyclic trend to be this predictable. Maybe some institution(s) with serious $$$ is playing games with the market. Maybe a large scale case of pump and dump? Anyways, if the trends...
Wow, what a push higher this morning. I have updated my head and shoulders analysis based on this. I am still very bearish on AAPL. The stock price just does not seem to make any sense of reality (significantly more so that the market at large) other than it is a bubble. If so, then the head and shoulders pattern would be a good fit. Watch and see.
I have been predicting a drop since last week. Looks like it may be in full effect after that amazing surge this morning (what a serious pump and dump). I wish I knew who the main players are that are manipulating this stock market.
Plot of the 4 hour MACD and RSI indicators for the S&P 500. By the MACD pattern there is still maybe 4 hours if not a day of upside. However, the general trend in the S&P and RSI are indicating a pull back. My analysis of the AD line also predicts a pull back today. Maybe the big tech stocks bullish momentum can hold the S&P up for one more day? As always, the...
The pattern over the last month is very clear in the AD analysis. I marked the 3 locations that show the exact same pattern. This pattern gave us the last 2 pullbacks. Hard to see why it would not happen again tomorrow.
Given that today is the peak for Apple, then this is my estimate of its price based on head and shoulders pattern. I last estimated AAPL to hit $310. Exceed my expectations and made it to $316 today.
An update from last week on the AD line. Things are following the predicted pattern. Looking for reversal today or tomorrow.