DarthTrader1357

DarthTrader1357

This descending triangle in the most "bullish" of sectors - energy - seems to prove that we are in a bear market. The descending triangle seems to trade with a bearish elliot wave pattern for descending triangles as evidenced here: thepatternsite.com Share your thoughts in the comments below.

DarthTrader1357

US02Y up ~6% US10Y up ~0.12% Definition of a Bear Flattener = market go down. Is it a perfect indicator? Of course not. But the tendency is that bear flatteners mean money is coming out of the market and going into short term bonds where it can come out of the quickest if market turns around. So the short term bonds act as a kind of pump/dump for the market. We...

DarthTrader1357

I have a method of tracking actual volatility versus implied. I map the monthly "expected range" (the orange parabola) and then I expand it to match the actual movement of the price. (The purple parabola). What I notice is this is usually like a clock winding-up and the spring is now wound as far as it can go before it takes more force. What I mean by that is the...

DarthTrader1357

I arrived to a conclusion of 13k BTC based on interest rate changes back at the top - didn't short BTC because I didn't believe it was possible. Well here we are at a low of 17.5k so egg on my face. Here I show the 3x 4year cycles which are very well mapped on the MFI. Red, green, yellow (current). Based on this the yellow cycle still has yet to put its foot on...

DarthTrader1357

I believe we are seeing the BTCUSD bull wave finish and now the ABC correction begins. Embedded trading (slow stochastic above 80) is about to be lost and will likely fall. If it falls centerline then the ABC may terminate only half-back from the swing-high. If the slow stochastic enters below 30 then I think we could retest the prior lows ~19k BTCUSD and ~$5 on...

DarthTrader1357

USOIL makes what looks like a classic Elliot Flat Correction. But where does it go from here? Is the correction a pause in upward prices? Or is the correction the change in direction from uptrend to downtrend? Note that the bottom yellow dotted line is the 200day MA area. Haven't even bounced off that yet.

DarthTrader1357

Thesis: US Government will not allow oil to rise further. FED already shamed by inflation making fool of them after destroying market ~20% only to see it recover with rising inflation and falling interest rates. Bond market still bear-flattening further. Elliot wave pattern: USOIL appears to have fallen first through an ABC pattern and now traded into a bearish...

DarthTrader1357

My first attempt at identifying an Elliot Wave Pattern - I'm short and seeking contrary opinions to this to break me of confirmation bias. I see an impulse (1-2-3-4-5) from the 6 month sell off into June that now is in a correction phase in a form of an A-B-C Zigzag. The Impulse confirmed the trend because the drop between 2 to 3 was longer than 1-2 and 4-5. 2...

DarthTrader1357

Historically - inflation has never been defeated except when a long term bond (in this case the 30 year) yield is above the rate of inflation. The collapse of supply has meant too much money chasing too few goods. This means more and more capital is sucked into a blackhole of wage-price spirals. Currently the US has trapped itself against a wall and a hard place...