I came up with this one...have not seen it anywhere else...but it does seem to fit nicely....boy if this is correct, we are about to truly moon!!!
I see SILVAH being the best play available and it is about to break out hard...(See previous post). With this in mind, I am loading up on junior miners...SILJ is one way to play the silvah move with some leverage. Expecting great things soon!
In my estimation, the capitulation we saw recently was the low in metals...expecting major move up from here....we will ultimately see if I am correct. But as for me and my $, we are fully on board!
Many have been submitting counts that are incredibly bullish....and yes I have a few of those as well. However, this count which looks very interesting says something different! I think blow off top may have just happened and next week could be the start of the large retrace we have been waiting for...only time will tell, but this indeed could be a major pivot...
I am watching the 10 yr yield and the DXY (dollar)for direction. Chart below tells my key levels and what should ensue following a breach of these levels. (**NOTE** the recent drop in yields and today's spike in DXY is a cautionary signal...be on guard for a decent pb soon...or of course it could be a fake out...only time will tell)...but watch these two...
I am expecting a pull back of 10%+ soon...not trying to call a top...but there appears to be little momentum and follow thru on the recent ATH...and we appear to be in an ending diagonal on SPX. This with the recent decline in 10 yr yields and today's spike in the DXY (dollar) tells me that there is fear creeping into the market...if this takes hold a sell off...
Beware!!! IF the stock mkts sell off, Silver will be taken down with it...why? Way to many investors are using leverage...they will have to sell everything to make margin calls...and precious metals will take a hit! Be hedged appropriately and buy with both hands if this happens...I have raised cash as a hedge and have purchased some VIX exposure...I did not...
Check back in6 months to see if this comes true...that is my prediction...before year end...likely in the fall...we hit $60/oz
As you all know, bonds and stocks typically move opposite of one another...however if you look at the chart below, for the few couple of months this is not the case...both TLT and SPX are moving inthe same direction...one of these charts is telling us the wrong message. I am betting that SPX is the chart that is lying...I am expecting a reversal soon.
Too many are getting negative on gold...I am seeing more live in the PMs in the near term...the traders that dumped on margin are almost done imo...this means more upside as the market drops hard next month...and yes the correlation with the stock market and gold is about to break and the inverse relationship we are use to is about to resume...stocks down...gold up!
Most analyst are expecting the USD to continue to strengthen...I say NO. I see this dropping sharply as the FED goes nuclear on stimulus...we will see. BTW, I see gold putting in a floor very soon and about to bounce hard.
I have revised my previously posted SPX count...what I thought was the conclusion of wave 4 turns out was likely a conclusion of wave 4 of a lesser degree. So the sub wave 5 that I expect will only be completing the wave 3 of a higher degree vs the over all wave 5 of the 5-3-5 combination sequence...See picture below. This seems to line up better with the fib extensions.
Regarding my last post...silver bulls last stand... See the first part to this count that is somewhat questionable....Note the top of the candle body on Wave 1 (white) and the bottom of wave 4(white) candle bodies...both sit right on the blue line. Any thing more in either direction would invalidate the count...only the wicks are allowed to overlap and still...
the only count that I can come up with that still has a bullish view for silver...on any TF less than 1 week this count invalidates as you have an overlap of more than a wick for waves 1 and 4...this is an "extremely" lenient count for the bulls...if this closes below the blue line on a weekly basis this count invalidates and would be very bearish!
I hate to say it but I see a full 50% retracement of the entire 2009-2020 bull market in progress...we should see a final leg down to complete wave 5 of the 5-3-5 combination that I see at the moment this will be followed by a 3 wave (ABC pattern) which should take us back up to around the 50% the entire down move of the the last two weeks...this is a chance for...
Bearish technical count is actually more compelling...hard decision...but goes against the fundamentals and what is going on in the world...which do we follow??
I believe this chart is the question of the decade...or multiple decades! Which direction will we follow...are you bullish or bearish? I personally am betting on the bullish case given the uncertainty and fiscal irresponsibility of all the governments...I cannot see gold falling back to $800-900/oz with the amount of stimulus that is about to come...but then...
My latest view...we are headed back to Dec 24, 2018 lows...the first 5 wave sequence should end today or tomorrow...then a small bounce will occur...but the major selling will resume shortly after...and yes we will equal or perhaps break the Dec lows.