The flat correction in November caught me off guard, but I am still convinced we have a fifth wave ahead of us in Bitcoin's current market cycle. Here is the roadmap after updating for recent price action.
The entire market is extremely bearish from pricing in the expected rate hikes from the Fed. I believe this is an overeaction that leads to a short squeeze, FOMO, and one final leg up that really makes the coming crash that much worse. I'm also using Elliott Wave analysis to compare BTC with the S&P500 and provide details as to why I believe there's still room...
There is quite the setup potentially brewing using the Bollinger Bands. Looks very similar to the "China pump" in 2019. The result was a 40% 3-day candle reversal that failed to break out of the bear trend.
A running flat in wave 4 has kept the correction going longer than expected, but the impulse count remains the same - wave 5 is still ahead.
Bitcoin price must retrace back to at least $53,500 to reclaim 50% of the down candle.
A rare Elliott Wave corrective pattern. Similar to the Livermore accumulation cylinder.
A running flat wave 4 correction has forced me to adjust some things, however, not by much. Here is what I expect to come.
If we simply follow the guidelines of Elliott Wave, the situation becomes a lot more clear. Only time will tell if true.
Based on seasonality, cycles, and Fibonacci, we have the recipe for a top target based on the log growth curve.
According to BTC dominance, altcoins could run harder a while longer.
The bull trend should resume, possibly for longer than many would expect based on comparing past RSI cycles.
At the moment, Bitcoin is holding a bullish retest on the weekly timeframe. Comparing past tops, the conditions appear to be different. If it holds, it could be expected that the bull market continues. The Bollinger Bands appear to support this theory. Beware of any Black Swan related to Delta or Afhghanistan. There is no escaping a situation like that bullish or bearish.
The Donchian channel is a very basic tool and functions somewhat similarly to the Bollinger Bands to a degree. Past bear markets started when Bitcoin lost the median. This time, Bitcoin has successfully defended the median, meaning that another push up should begin soon.
Bitcoin price is stuck in the cloud on the 2-day, 3-day,- 4-day, and 5-day. The 6-day and weekly are at Tenkan-sen resistance. Monthly, however, has very little resistance above. Only some Chikou span resistance the cryptocurrency should slice through.
I am of the rare few who believes that Litecoin is currently the best trade in crypto. Few altcoins are still so down on their BTC pairs and have underperformed during the bull market thus far. There also is nowhere else this technically flawless of a double bottom pattern, that just completed its retest.
Making a prediction for how the rest of the cycle goes according to the log curve.
These are the times things almost seem easy in technical analysis. Sir John Templeton says the most dangerous words in investing are "this time it's different". Is it different?
I've poured every ounce of my being into understanding markets, cyclical behaviors, patterns, etc. I very much believe this is the path for Bitcoin. Wave 5 will resemble wave 1. I expect it to run to the 1.618 fib extension. There will be no retest just like in wave 1, but the level will later be retested as the eventual next bear market bottom. Everyone...