CMTTrader

CMTTrader

The careful analysis of the hourly chart points to 2.0060 as an important support while 2.0105 stands as the immediate resistance. A break of either will be expected to result in a significant move. Breaking below 2.0060 could very much pull the price lower towards 1.9971 then 1.9906. A break below this last level will be a significant momentum changer,...

CMTTrader

A narrowing price action is promising that the “cooling” phase is about to end, and that a new strong move will shortly follow. Now triangles are tricky to trade, and I strongly believe that they are bilateral in nature, not continuation. So, the break could be up, or down, and in my opinion that is 50:50. In case the price does break below the triangle bottom,...

CMTTrader

The pair has started recovering from the previous sharp drop on Dec 9th, and managed to get very close to the 50% retracement level (1.8655) twice. The first was on the 14th of the month & the second on the 20th. Following the 2nd attempt, the bulls gave up, and the bears used that to lower the key retracement to 1.8608. The price behavior for the last 10 days...

CMTTrader

Update to the analysis from last week: The Dollar index tested the resistance around 94 & a half one more time late last week, before starting to drop again. The daily close is weak, especially that it came after reaching a 13-month hi, it only left a shadow above the Fibonacci level, and the daily candle looks like a Doji. Shorter-term analysis shows that...

CMTTrader

Hours ahead of the Fed, the Dollar-Index chart does not have good news for the bulls. A look at what has happened since late September says it all. After the hard drop from the COVID top seen in March 2020 near 103 points, the greenback used Georgia Senate elections in the first days of 2021 to build a bottom, a little above 89 points. From there, a rising...

CMTTrader

The Euro spent the last 3 days of the previous week trying to hold above the 1.18 landmark: Wednesday’s lo was 1.1802, Thursday’s lo was 1.1805 & Friday’s lo was 1.1810. After extensive research, I believe that the level that is providing support in this area is the Marji 42.9% retracement level 1.1804. As long as the single currency is surviving above this...

CMTTrader

It seems like the precious metal is preparing for its next move, by calming down before the storm. The initial support & resistance are getting close to each other: the rising trendline from Wednesday’s lo is currently running extremely close to Friday’s lo 1786.20, making it our initial support, while the falling trend line from September 3rd daily high is...

CMTTrader

On Friday, the Pound attempted to recover, and reached a 1-week hi @ 1.3889, before dropping again, and closing @ 1.3835, which is exactly equal to the open according to my chart. This price behavior has left behind a Doji candle, indicating that a possible reversal might follow, after recent recovery attempts. Moreover, the 2 most recent recovery attempts...

CMTTrader

After a very impressive recovery from lows not seen in months, is it time for the New Zealand dollar to resume its bigger picture trend of falling? There are several signs on the hourly chart that it is possible: 1. An obvious 5-wave decline for the period from Aug 11th to Aug 20th (red) 2. A probable 3-wave correction from Aug 20th bottom. I have marked waves...

CMTTrader

On Wednesday, the Dollar Index topped at 93.19, and with the help of the market reaction to the CPI report, the bears restored control and pulled the index, again, below the 93-point landmark. After a shy recovery attempt on Thursday, the drop was resumed, even stronger, on Friday. (On Wednesday, the Dollar dropped 0.18%, On Friday, the greenback lost 0.49%)....

CMTTrader

Ever since the precious metal topped extremely close to the 50% resistance around 1834, twice, we were expecting a drop below 1750. In addition to the accurate retracement level retest, it was possible to count 5 waves down & 3 up (1-2-3-4-5 down then A-B-C up), which in Elliott analysis, is the most perfect sign of a coming drop! That happened in...

CMTTrader

The 10-YR T-NOTE yield is currently approaching 1.3%, and trying to overcome the falling trendline from the tops seen in mid June. In case we break above this falling trendline, the yield will break its short-term downtrend. If the yield closes above this trendline by the end of today's trading, in my opinion, this will be the break of the week, and it will be...

CMTTrader

Cable is now trading below the rising trend line from the lows seen late in June, and below the MA band as well. Classic signal of weakness. With stopping again just pips above the Marji 71.$% retracement level, and the meaningful move down seen since London open about 2 hours ago, this pair is obviously not in a very good position to continue moving higher....

CMTTrader

Failure inside the MA band (1) & extremely close to the 50% retracement (2), within a short-term downtrend (3), are all things that when put together indicate that this pair has a very good chance of diving from current levels. If you add that to what the daily chart says (posted 2 days ago), and you have a horrible situation in the making. 1.85 is not as far as...

CMTTrader

3 reasons to believe that breaking below 2.0590 should result in trading below 2.0468: 1. Yesterday hi was extremely close to the Marji retracement level 71.4%, one of my top favorite retracements. 2. Clear A-B-C corrective pattern rising from Apr 20th lo. 3. The very elegant rising hourly channel has its bottom at 2.0590, and if the bottom of this channel is...

CMTTrader

Key trend line currently running around 1.9461, if this level is still not broken until tomorrow (Wednesday), the trend line will be running around 1.9495. In both cases, a break below this trend line will be destructive to this pair, and could result in a collapse near 1,000 pips, as one of the most interesting targets for this break is 1.8545.

CMTTrader

Key levels for the pair: Support: - 0.5980 : The bottom of the MA band. - 0.5945 : The meeting point (which will be reached soon) between the rising trend line from the bottom seen 10 days ago, and an intraday resistance line from a top which followed. Resistance: - 0.6040 : The falling trend line from the most recent top. - 0.6069 : Key Fibonacci level. A...

CMTTrader

The second test of the short term Fibonacci 61.8% support level @ 1.1051 is underway. This test could give us valuable clues on the direction of the next move.