BigDataBarista

BigDataBarista

Trend lines: not absolute but they are wickedly useful shorthand. Here's an example: A test of $49k/$50k near end of April/start of May. This may very well coincide with the BTC halving. A test of the current ATHs ($70k-$74k) will happen in August. This will spur a bullish last half of 2024 that may surpass the hysteria of the last half of 2017. Experienced...

BigDataBarista

Clowns on the left of me, jokers to the right, I am stuck in the middle w/ you. Not sure what is going on, we're in the middle of a downtrend w/ a five count down and very weak 3 count recovery. I don't believe it's a three count, I think the bump to $18k was correction wave 6. $12k will have some buy orders in for me, methinks.

BigDataBarista

BTC/USD chart based on Kraken prices, using Fibonacci sequence numbers to validate previous Elliot Wave and wedge evaluation. Mostly for the benefit of my American Economics History class - shout out to you all, Weber Rocks!

BigDataBarista

It's been a quiet year, not for lack of attention, but either nothing material has changed, or the information hasn't been indicative. Short term - going down. Medium term - range bound. Long term - $13,000 will be the new floor. $13,000 USD has turned out to be a key level. It's a 1/3 FIb retracement off the ATH, and the current Fib. retracements off of $13K...

BigDataBarista

Today's price action is notable. It breaks several trend lines. Here, it completes a 5 wave pattern and moves us on to a 6-7-8 price correction. I'm calling $7,300 as 6, $6,800-$6,900 as 7, and $8,000 as 8. After that point, it will be a new ball game, and atm, I'm willing to call a reversal, w/ a new upward 5 wave count starting. Ironically, I am calling the new...

BigDataBarista

I've been deliberately quiet for 10-ish weeks now. Sometimes standing still is the best thing to do, if you don't know which road you're on. But my inner bear is roaring again. We had a 3 wave correction, and then a whole new 5 wave down. It took two 1/2 sections of an Elliot Wave pattern to do it, but despite everyone's best efforts, the market refused to...

BigDataBarista Updated 

Chart is based on log values, not USD price. Calling a bottom is about as serious as it gets. Here's why I'm doing it. A) This Elliot Wave impulse wave setup is almost a textbook setup. In order to get these counts, the price action has touched some strong floors, ceilings and most importantly, trendlines. B) I believe in how a market "feels". That makes me a...

BigDataBarista

Or rather, Bolling for Bitcoin. I love Bollinger Bands. (Insert standard "TA isn't always perfect" disclaimer here). While not exactly precise, you could think of them as a cross between Simple Moving Averages ("SMAs") and trend channels. The upper and lower bounds are statistical variants of the SMA, and the size of the trend channel translates to the degree of...

BigDataBarista

Let's take out all the BTC hysteria that started during The Thanksgiving Weekend. Before we all sat down to talk turkey (and then eat it), BTC seemed to behave "rationally". It was going up and down and all around, and that can be attributed to "reasonable" investors - those who were the starters in the game, the early adopters, the crazy nephews fighting The Man...

BigDataBarista

And just the evidence declared Gerry Lane MIA/probably KIA in the timeless documentary "World War Z" ( :) ), there is no confirmation of anything "good". Right now. It doesn't seem to matter what ceiling you choose, we just can't get above it. Trend line, mean regression, none of it gives any good news. This trend channel suggests a continued downward plunge....

BigDataBarista

Another week, another xanax. I didn't expect BTC to pop up to $8,500 this morning (3/16/2018), expecting it to continue to drop overnight. But I woke up, and just about tripped over this bear trap. A bear trap is when the price goes up in a down market, so you think it's going up, and then the price reversal snaps back down and BOOM! the bear of your investing...

BigDataBarista

Usually floors & ceilings are based on simple price points, but they can also be created by completion of new patterns that halt a trend. This is a one-hour analysis of the same BTC/USD pattern we've been following lately, and there's an itty bitty full on 8 wave pattern this week that has halted the previous decline. I've been bearish on my BTC/USD predictions,...

BigDataBarista

Technical Analysis is pattern prediction, and by extension, statistical probability. I believe in it, I believe that the numbers tell us what they are doing, but it's getting the RIGHT technical analysis in play. This chart is a great example. Earlier this week, I published this same chart with the waves from the BTC 2.77% ATH 2.09% as being a prediction of the...

BigDataBarista

Despite folk's best hopes, the 4 hour BTC/USD chart looks to me like a classic Elliott Wave 5th leg setup. I've been waiting for BTC/USD to drop to $4,800, and I'm afraid I'm about to get my wish. A lot of people, for a while now, have been pushing, hoping, praying and maybe sacrificing small mammals to pagan deities in the hope that we don't drop, but I believe...

BigDataBarista

This is an update of last week's channel analysis. I've found it usually useful to return to a previous technical analysis and see if it's confirmed or denied before I move forward with a new approach. Just one more "trick" in the black darkness of TA. :) We've spent the last week moving upwards in BTC/USD, and $10k is a big deal. I am not trusting this, however,...

BigDataBarista

Today's breather looks to be just that. As of this post, it looks like we may not even hold the mid-channel ceiling/support established around $8,250, +\- $150. Even so, we still have a LONG way to go before we break out of the general downward trend, and I don't expect that to happen before we reach the magic $4,800 floor. For some reason, when we started...

BigDataBarista Updated 

Based on the $20K-ish BTC/USD high, and a pretty solid support level of $4,800, a 23.8% level OF the high (20,000 X 0.238) puts us right about $6k. I suspect we may go all the way down to $4,800. If THAT floor breaks, then we really are looking at foundational BTC support. I don't think we'll pass below $3,000 in any case, at least, based on the current...

BigDataBarista

I don't know if this is a technical analysis thing or not - I haven't seen it elsewhere, but I also haven't looked for it. From Jan 2016 (past 24 months), you can see each two point trend line, as their frequency and angle increased. You can also see how the first (or last) trendline has been violated, and I think the middle one will be touched. The general point...