NYSE:UNH dropped after reducing guidance in their earnings release, and then gapped down again today when NYSE:HUM missed estimates. These two stocks frequently respond to one another, creating fantastic trading opportunities if you have both on your watch list. Todays candle is doji with relatively high volume, which is a decent reversal signal. Prior to...
AMEX:TMV broke out of a downtrend at the end of 2023 and gapped up with todays open. I'm playing this shift in momentum tightly. I'm entering here and planning to take profit at 36.77, which aligns to the volume weighted average price anchored to 5/19/23 (entering consolidation prior to July 2023 breakout) and 10/19/23 (last strong buying day prior to 2023 peak)....
CRYPTO:LTCUSD LTC looks like another breakout from a basing pattern. Note that the measured ranges were hit from the prior breakout from the descending trend line.
BINANCE:JTOUSDT with an excellent breakout this week. Thanks to @bluefox1976 for pointing this one out a few weeks ago. Like a lot of new alts, JTO spiked after listing and then went into a decline followed by a consolidation. We took a fib time zone from the 12/14/23 high to the 12/18 low and price pivots have aligned nicely. A small base formed between 1/3 and...
CRYPTO:BTCUSD cycle tops have had greater alignment to peaks in China’s 10 year rate, and lows have had greater alignment to the level of global net liquidity. Relative to extremes at those data points, halvings almost appear neutral. This leads me to be cautious of too much market optimism generated for a combination of spot ETF approval and the upcoming...
Unless we see NYSE:XOM make a strong move above 105, this looks like the end of wave 4. We would expect a 5th wave to take us below the December low.
NYSE:LOW current movement is similar to what we see across the consumer discretionary sector. It has also been consolidating in a long term symmetrical triangle. There are three supporting areas that I've kept an eye on: The 12/13/23 gap (215). Price fell through this level yesterday. The variable weighted average price anchored to the 11/2/23 breakout...
NYSE:MRK has shown a strong breakout. We see a steady secondary downtrend from May 2023 to early December. Anchoring a VWAP to the May 202 high and another to the October low give us a clear indication of support and resistance. I missed the breakout and retest in early December, as well as the break above the VWAP from the prior high. Taking a fib retrace from...
The alt-coin market is hot right now. This could continue alongside anticipation of halving, possibly driven by those feeling priced out of BTC and seeking faster returns. Or we could see alts cool down as speculators rotate back to BTC. TOTAL3 is the total market cap of alt-coins (cryptocurrency less BTC and ETH), representing the most speculative opportunities...
I like the look of the breakout from $NYSE:MOS. Inverse head and shoulders, breaking above a descending wedge, momentum building, and multiple closes above the VWAP anchored to the August high.
Be cautious buying this uptrend, and be especially cautious trying to catch the bottom of a mediocre company in a downtrend. I don't view the current environment to be fully risk off or fully risk on, but showing signs of the last leg of the business cycle. My preference is to target 20-30% cash and focus on companies with a high sharpe ratio, and lower ...
State of the market and key past trends Earlier this year I wrote this piece on possible outcomes for monetary policy and what to look for next in the market, and much of this held true. Here is what we can observe in a current update: Local bottoms in risk assets continue to coincide with local bottoms in global net liquidity. Some debate whether central...
I recently posted about the potential to take advantage of seasonal weakness for $NASDAQ:COST. I'm embarrassed to say that I had lost track of them being overdue to offer a special dividend. Since 2015 they have offered a special dividend every 2-3 years. Let's look at how the special dividend announcements have influenced sentiment and interacted with seasonal...
NYSE:COP loves breaking out of descending secondary trends and filling proportional ranges. If history repeats, this sets us up for a move to 124-129. Note that we've hit the volume weighted average price anchored to the prior high. This might act as resistance and trigger a retest of the breakout. This happens ~70% of the time with breakouts from descending...
We’re in a seasonally strong time of the year for the defense sector. NYSE:NOC NOC tends to perform well in the first half of the year. It recently hit its first target in this measured range from the breakout of a descending wedge. A move to ~495 would align to the full range and match the seasonal performance in Jan/Feb. Companies in the defense sector...
NASDAQ:COST is a core holding of mine and one that I use technical analysis to continue building. I've reported multiple setups to build a cost position and recently shared the strong seasonal outlook for November. We have earnings after the close on 12/14, a quad withing on 12/15, and a history of seasonal weakness between December and March. I'll take this...
I am publishing a seasonal opportunity for a ~2 month trade with several small caps. A of the details are listed together on my substack. open.substack.com AMEX:IWM has shown a strong rebound from the October lows, breaking out of a descending wedge on November 3rd, retesting on November 9th, and consistently moving upward since. It is currently testing the...
In September we took a look at the setup forming with ASO and knew that this would take some time to play out. This week we have our first candle body above the the secondary downtrend and looking to reclaim the the primary uptrend. We also have a recent positive MACD crossover. Looking at the proportional range of movement similar to the last breakout...