Been such a fan, waiting for so long, but I think the technical outlook for China Equities is not looking too good. Three fails Breakdown of the TDST puts it in Bearish primary trend mode. MACD is bearish VolDiv shows some accumulation Some downside, highly probable. Target at 66/67 then see how... for those who love China equites!
Someone mentioned to me that Gold is an asset that never loses money. I took the effort to show previously that Gold can very well do a 20% drop over a slow bleed (months) before it travels back up months later too. I also warned that Gold appears not to be able to keep properly and well above 2000-2080. Since 2020 (the Gold Odyssey series started in 2019), there...
The combined US indexes had spiked as expected, and hit the upside target. This came with good technical indicator support. But the caveat is that the candlestick looks like a dark cloud cover pattern. In this type of pattern, a gap up is reversed and a close is below the halfway mark of the previous candle body. This is exactly what happened so once can expect...
6 months ago, 32.20 was the critical support called. A slow bleed over the last 6 months saw little upside move and a slow bleed downwards. The technical indicators are admittedly not as bearish as I thought it might be. DQ is seen to head further down, visiting as deep as 32, but not likely crashing further, particularly where the MACD is building a bullish...
Just over 6 months ago, OXY was flagged to technically not do the expected rally as it broke down of the H&S shoulder. Many had bought in following the reported Berkshire's purchases of OXY , BUT technicals was telling of another type of scenario. Watching the breakdown was rather painful as it stretched over the last 6 months, with a recovery attempt that failed...
As marked, it has 4 candles after closing above the resistance and is on a very bullish breakout. Thing is, the indexes just moved into a resistance zone. And there is a potential confluent resistance point just above. Overall, bullish until meeting resistance, then we should have a pull back of some sort...
USDJPY is continuing to be bullish, at least in the weekly chart, with MACD and VolDiv supporting in bullish alignment. 141.6 is the expected resistance, thereafter, 134 a good support.
Just a quick note that as Biden signed the raise of the US debt ceiling, the USD is going to be bullish for a bit, and then meet the upper range resistance, and then lose it to get back to range support. Projection Targets marked.
As expected previously, the Singapore STI (EWS) hit the first target range. It appears to have bounced off a bit in the short week (Friday is a Public Holiday, being Vesak Day). However, the technical indicators accentuate that there is more downside to come... Breaking down below the support to form a lower low is confirmation for the lower target to be the next...
Observable for weeks now, and recently, the divergence is much more pronounced. What I am referring to are that the equity markets appear to be more and more bullish, breaking out of trendlines; while the leading indicators (TIP, TLT, JNK and inversely VXX) show an imminent deterioration, about to breakdown of trendlines. The combined US equity markets and...
As mentioned in previous heads up over the last weeks, it had finally happened (as expected) that the SG10Y GB yield rates break out of trend line resistance. And from previous occurrences, this is a very reliable inverse leading indicator of the SPY (and other related equity indexes); meaning that the SPY should be tanking downwards within the next week or...
Just want to show an anomaly observed here... sort of a tip off on what is most likely to happen. You see, I read Russell Napier's Anatomy of the Bear back in 2009 (not easy to get it as it is out of print!), and he describes TIP as one of the/a leading indicator ahead of the equity market. Superimposed on the TIP daily chart is the SPY (blue line), NASDAQ (cyan...
2023, the SGD/MYR rate should be looking about 3.45; and if this is so, then from end Oct (4Q2023) is possible for the rate to be 3.7ish. I do not know the economic fundamentals enough to comment, but the technicals are already pointing to that projection. Long ago, I heads up friends about the SGD/MYR going from 2.5-2.6 to 3/3.50. First part happened within a...
Multiple signals all aligned to much more downside in the Singapore STI... 1. A lower high. Watch for the lower low incoming! 2. Break out and then break back into the consolidation range. This is the second time, and expect an extrusion through the bottom of the range. 3. MACD lower high, and crossed down. Bearish oops, look from crossing down into bear...
Conditions appear to be shifting really quickly... just a few days ago, it appeared that the SG10Y Govt Bond was going to break a low and go further down, sending the correlated S&P500 (and other indexes rallying up. BUT, it brooke down and recovered very quickly. NOW, it appears to be ready to break UP and out of the downtrend line. This has happened before,...
IF you are getting a little frustrated, I am too... something is building up and meanwhile there is a lot of conflicting signals. The week passed, and it appears to suggest the opposite now... a breakdown is more likely... 60/40 in favour of a breakdown, if I may quantify. Set up the Breakout and Breakdown levels, and waiting for some real...
Oh oh... the optimism, much as we want it given, does not appear to be. Having bounced off the middle of the consolidation zone, a surge to the upper range resulted in a weak follow through with a lower high, and a following bearish (patterned) candlestick. The technical indicatiors are trickling downwards, and one wonders if it is going to uptick... A bearish...
Overlayed the TIP a chart with SPY (blue line). Quite clear that TIP (amongst JNK/HYG and even copper) precedes the index. Given all previous analyses and outlook, what we would like to see is that TIP break out and above its trend line resistance, as does its VolDiv. When this happens, can expect a bullish advancement. MACD has not yet turned to crossover, but...