A_Bouras

A_Bouras

Sugar is preparing for something big. The price is in range for a couple of days now and the ATR is dropping. I'm biased for some reason that price will drop sharply. However the trend still remains bullish on all TFs. Hoping to see price at the area of value to work out intentions from there. Good luck traders. Note: I'm no trading expert nor have the...

A_Bouras

Coffee is back around the price of the beginning of the month. Since OCT 2 we have a shy uptrend forming for coffee’s standards, in the 4h time frame (TF). The price went up from its lowest of the current month and $104.90 to $113.35 (+8.04%) on OCT 12 and $111.70 (+6.45%) today so far. The trend on the Higher TFs is still bearish and technically this is where...

A_Bouras

Wheat in October climbed more than 13%. For the past few days we see the price making a pullback and stopping at the 50MA where buyers jump in again. There are two scenarios that I see right now: 1) we have a descending triangle in-the-forming with potential break lower if bears win or 2) we are in the “digestion” period of the recently formed higher...

A_Bouras

Following yesterday's idea (pls see below for link) and after engaging a few long orders today sugar turned long as we expected. The uptrend is now stronger than before (see the two green lines) and the price is currently at a critical level. At this level we can do two things: 1) increase our trailing stop losses to a new level (I suggest you consult the ATR...

A_Bouras

Sugar a few minutes ago reached the expected level I was refering to in my previous idea. The trend in bullish although we have a strong pullback just now. The COT data metioned on the chart supports further climb (unless something happened in the meantime that we still don't know about). As usual nothing is certain in the markets. So as I see it with the...

A_Bouras

Coffee after a 3 week structure and battle seems to be making a break towards the Fib 0.382. The higher time frames still point down. The ADX indicator shows uptrend but no strength yet (it usually has a delay on that). The COT of Sep 29 shows a lot of long orders closed (-3745) and more short open (+3065) with net long positions to 54931 compared to 61741 of...

A_Bouras

SUGAR is clearly bullish on 4h-D-W time frames. On the monthly time frame we expect at some point (mid-term I would say) to retrace back to the Fib 0.382 level. The COT (Commitment of Traders) outlook of the institutions for the week of SEP 29 supports the bullish trend as net positions increased to 248.345 compared to 234.659 of the week before that. Volume...

A_Bouras

Wheat has become one of my favourite commodities to trade after the 10:1 win to lose ratio of my positions for SEP '20. Now I'm puzzled as to what to do next. The trend is clearly bullish but, we are approaching the strong resistance of $5.87-5.92 of MAR '20. If we break this level then we will see higher prices. Maybe go back to the prices of 2014-2015 where...

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I’ve been trading in the “old days” (that is the late ’90s) in the stock market of my country. Back then you had to call your broker. If you managed to get through to him you gave him a range of prices and then he would call the guy in the dealing room and if you were lucky he would buy or sell your stock with profit. Sounds crazy to the young guys now, I guess. ...

A_Bouras

Wheat reached the resistance and holded after breaking the trendline mentioned in previous comment (see below). I'm expecting it to drop at first to the Fib 0.382 lvl marked in the white dotted line. From there on we will see. If it drops further then we are heading to the support of ~$5.45. I actually took the selling idea mentioned in the chart as I was...

A_Bouras

Wheat is once again at a critical point in my opinion. The trend on the 4h time frame (TF) is strongly bearish for the past week. However on the weekly TF is bullish showing higher highs and higher lows. Right now price following the bearish trend (shown in green) reached the strong support and the 200MA (yellow thick and green thin continues line). What I...

A_Bouras

COFFEE holded the support area of ~109.20-109.50 and made a pullback breaking the trendline (marked green on chart). However the bulls seem to be sleepy so I believe the trend continues to be bearish and we have to monitor how price will react to make our decision. Personally I'm considering a short position around the area marked on the chart. Potential profit...

A_Bouras

After the price rejection @ ~17.70 and the pullback, price continues to respect the 50MA as it does since late July. If it holds for the rest of the session today with all this mess around the markets, we have increased chances of this bull trend to continue. Following my long positions at ~$16.90 and profit taking at $19.74 (see previous idea below), I oppened...

A_Bouras

Wheat today broke the support level mentioned as DECISION LEVEL on previous published idea (pls see below for link). As seen on the 4h time frame above, it also just broke the 38.2% Fib level from the weekly time frame of the last impulse. The trend remains bearhish (MACD confirms the shift) and the weekly resistance now shifted around the $5.34-5.35 level. I'm...

A_Bouras

Wheat after our recent profitable prediction (pls refer to previous published idea) is now looking for a direction in my opinion. It failed yesterday to break the $5.42-5.43 level so now we have a stong 4h bearish candlestick. Still I'm unsure what the outcome will be. The MACD 4h took a turn and is now approaching the signal line with momentum to go...

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NIO Inc with the VERY interesting business model and the impressive recent results, is trying to make a come back in my opinion to the $20 area. The price as shown on the chart seems to be respecting the 50MA at the 4h time frame. The trend is still bullish in the sense that the 50MA is respected and today's break of the $18 level rises the chances of the price...

A_Bouras Updated 

This is just an idea I'm considering for Wheat. Comments welcomed. Note: The above is not a trading suggestion, just sharing my thoughts with the intent of becoming better on trading commodities mainly.