Just a first test to see how usable TV is when it comes to option trading idea.
Buy: Dec '16 $125.00 PUT
Sell: Dec '16 $120.00 PUT
Initial outlay: $215 (net debit)
Maximum risk: $215 at a price of $125 at expiry
Maximum return: $285 at a price of $120 at expiry
BE at expiry: $122.85
I'm very new to this so would appreciate comments on my analysis. Thanks!
EXPE has good fundamentals and growth in HomeAway. I will book travel this summer with Expedia subs. 3 in 5 coworkers will too. Glassdoor rating high with 96% CEO approval.
EXPE was rejected from its longer term descending trend-line, additionally breaking it shorter term ascending trend-line (blue dotted line).
With a current IV Percentile of 39% I am more in favor of buying a one in the money, one out of the money put debit spread with 54 days until expiration. For every 1 lot the risk reward is near 50/50.
expect to have sideways correction for wave 4, prefer triangle. Now we only see one wave up but touched the common retracement level of 0.382 for 4th wave. Better to wait for few more days to see if there will be any bearish opportunity.
A nice blow-off top as a fake out on EXPE should make it's way back to the rising wedge support. Fake out seems confirmed by negative divergence on RSI and OBV.
T1 Jun15-Jul15: 92.74
T2 Jun15-Aug15: 88.57
Entry price is $88 with one dollar stop loss, aiming for a fall towards eighty-two dollars. If successful, the reward would be six-fold the risk.
Full analysis: jmak.ws
Expe is down and it's a risky trade. I like the fundamentals and the EPS growth. This is a critical level. I'd stay and watch how it is unfolds. If looks like it's supporting i might go long. but for now i'm waiting. Earning is @ the end of the month + dividend in November.
EXPE is extended in price with a moderate divergence in the RSI. Most bearish is the rising wedge with price nearing its apex. Sell stop at 86.89 and a stop loss at 88.54. Target is 82.89.
goo.gl The online travel agency has seen its page rankings drop 25% for travel-related searches on Google in recent days, according to Searchmetrics, a search-engine research firm.
Full story at Mashable.
mashable.com
Lower ranking, lower organic traffic, less visitors, less bookings, less revenue.
Question is how much Expedia depends on search engine traffic....
MACD is rounding, could cross by the end of the week. Looking for a long position over 49.96 with a previous days low trailing stop. Targeting 50% retrace.
Bullish Options activity in Aug 55C, 50C, 49C and Sept 48C
