A timely update to the 2s5s US Curve which is breaking higher with the resteepening after flattening from 2016. This breakout indicated we have marked a meaningful base with the next target in play at 29bps which is the measured target from a breakout.
(1) Every other time this happened it ended badly for the global economy via recession.
(2) A Fed that lags...
You have opened the grave of an economic cycle. Before we dig deeper into the nature and consequences of our discovery, we will discuss the background to the thesis and consider first what we know from history a few lessons;
(1) Every other time this happened it ended badly for the global economy via recession. A
(2) A Fed that lags and finances the Whitehouse...
This chart comes after a conversation with Citi... only 4 times in the past 30 years has the US 2's vs 5's curve inverted whilst being in an upward moving yield environment, via Fed QT.
We know from history a few lessons;
(1) Every other time this happened it ended badly for the global economy.
(2) A Fed that lags will only add fuel to the flames .. "it's...
Oppression will continue, eventually this let will continue down towards 1.423%; the target for wave 3. We would have to break higher than 2.02% to question whether the nature of this downside move remains intact.
There is a lot of support as we widely tracked here in advance. The bounce over the past few weeks is a corrective process that should not exceed the...
Another chart update here in US Yields after last week. Once again, it may take a while for yields to break through here (if at all). It is important to track for all signs of impulsive rises (as mentioned in the 10Y).
From a strictly wave perspective, it is a valid argument that the market is continuing to trade an incomplete ABC from November 2018 highs. The...
An inverted yield curve means a market situation in which the yields offered, for longer maturities, are lower than the yields of the short-term portion of the curve (in this case the "short" is usually considered as the rates up to 2 years). This is a situation that is at first sight counter-intuitive. Those who have studied Finance will certainly remember the...
An inverted yield curve means a market situation in which the yields offered, for longer maturities, are lower than the yields of the short-term portion of the curve (in this case the "short" is usually considered as the rates up to 2 years). This is a situation that is at first sight counter-intuitive. Those who have studied Finance will certainly remember the...
I believe that the most important question - is the secular trend of falling interest rates over or not - is still without answer. In last 30 years, each time 5Y yield got overbought, i.e. RSI got to 80, the trend reversed relatively quickly: in 1994, 2000 and 2006. The first time falling interest rates signaled the start of one of the strongest equity bull...
