When investors have a poor outlook for the economy, what do they do? They buy the longest term debt they can because it's one of the ways to price in the uncertainty of "right now" into the long term. Therefore, rational actors would do something like this: Buy 30 year treasuries. Buying ensues, yield goes down, price goes up. Eventually 20 year yield becomes...
When spreads between US5Y and US02Y go to 0 ot below, a recession follows in 12 to 18 months. This has been always correct for last 40 years or so.
Keeping the ZIRP thesis alive for now, 30s & 20s remain inverted now 5s could overtake 10s then 30s. Bonds are screaming for sure with inflation still growing m/m, more printing is inevitable to keep the economy going, and printing is how we got here. The next announcement for fed QE expansion, I believe will be the catalyst for golds big move out of the major...
As we approach a world where the Fed look set to hike in March, with 3.4 hikes priced by Dec 2022- we are also now hearing an open discussion around allowing maturing securities on its $8.8t balance sheet to run off (QT) -so, it's worth going back to the Dec FOMC minutes for real insight. With the market having had time to pour over the wording, it feels clear...
Idea for Bonds: - US05Y and US02Y printed immense spikes in the pre-market. Glitch? Probably not. Bond market in general is having extreme events globally, US markets not immune. - Not shown on TV, but HYG also printed -7% in the AH on Friday... and traded there for several minutes. - Dollar is unstoppable with global shortage. Pension funds have elected to use...
Total economic output is at a century low compared to money supply with no sign of slowing no matter the cause. The worries of a deflationary future will start to set in. Used a .com bars pattern to project my outlook.
Let me say this from the outset; within the 2's5's curve is a manual, given that I do not have a great deal of time, it is not possible for me to go into great dimensions or detail I have chosen. Instead we will have to content ourselves with the revolutionary charts/diagrams both before and of the period where I have gone into more details. The same is true of...
Usually, such a significant impulse reversal is never a one-day move. It seems the short end gets much flatter. The yield Curve volatility does not end up being risk-friendly
Forecast for Macro: - Falling Wedge Breakout must be re-tested. - Bear Flattener coming as short-term rates rise with Fed tightening expectations: - 2x ATR spike in US02Y: - The Fed members will probably all have their turn to make comments, leaning hawkish. This should cause a rally in the US02Y. - Bonds Volatility Technically Bullish: - However, this will...
This will trigger the largest crash ever
Hey tradomaniacs, The market is seriously playing games here! 🙈 The blast of yields can not be sustainable as this is going to be a be a thorn in Powells flesh. Why is that? Basically because rising yields will "raise the price of" debts! First of all, this is a BET against the FED and looks like TEST. As often explained, YIELDS are currently rising...
📌 ridethepig | Game, Set and Match! In order to inform ourselves about the dangers of this move, we shall in what follows point to a few live charts which we called live together from 2019 that the 2s5s was going to invert frantically , and was a bad sign. It enables occupation of the dominos, which for those following long enough will know the one thing...
5 Year US Government Bonds demonstrate a classic H & S bottom. They say equity market value is RELATIVE to bonds. That is very true. Sky high valuations in stock market are result of cheap money(ie, low rates). End of cheap money? If yes, it has serious implications for equity markets! Follow us for more!
Just inflation expectations and nominal yields and the spread