Major resistance - $1188 Major support - $1152 (200- H MA) The yellow metal has made a high of $1183 and declined sharply from that level. It is currently trading around $1174. US 10- year bond yield shown a slight jump till 2.42% from low of 2.34% after US Non farm payrolls.The yield is trading slightly below 2.45% (200- HMA) and a break above confirms 2.52%....
This chart provides probable market behavior given current market behavior, interest rates, and other factors such as presidential elections. www.tradingview.com I am expecting a down turn during the next week which would last until late February and another leg up in SPX until the final move down in August 2017. Trend line colors mark the same conditions...
4th wave in UST10Y to 2.13, then 5th wave starts
Stay above 2.49 increases probability for 3% rates
well the way to go to the lise seem to be different , orange and blue but we will hit the red line.
The US 10Y yield has been in a downtrend for an extremely long time (further back that this data shows). We could be capped at between 2.5-3% from here on in and the yield suggests that future interest rates are going to remain low. Well, the expectations theory says that long-term rates embed a prediction of future short-term rates. So we could imply from this...
I feel as though bond buying is going to commence again. The risk on behaviour is hugely unfounded. The only caveat is that Yellen has almost completely said there will be a hike in December. This would obviously be bullish yields. I dont necessarily think it is the right move, as this will deleverage equity indices, which I think are very fragile still as well. ...
Market is showing the Fed the way...again...expect Ms. Yellen to concede tomorrow that December rate hike will be done... Short 10 Year...for the next couple of years...
The divergence between stocks and bonds is the key. Stocks can't hold at present level if interest rates, as measured by the 10 years treasury, continue their path to higher grounds. On a short term basis my target is 2.49, which would completely erase the preceding 5th. A bad CPI number (out tomorrow before opening) could certainly do the trick. More on the...
despite of the trump illusion, we shoud see the big reality comme back
the intereste rate is related ty gold value. It is a fact . So you can elect anyone, the intereste rate seem to go higher in short term. so the gold have tow strikes for now . Interest rate and the fear that will disipate after the election.We go down for now.
TNX has been rising very rapidly. Now it's above 200-daily moving average. RSI is signaling overbought, but one must remember that it can stay overbought for some time. Maybe investors are realizing something? twitter.com
Long UST Yields. Bad for equities on risk parity strategy deleveraging due to recent postive correlations.
Bottom BARR Reversal. Global monetary policy ineffective in '16 as central banks start conversations of tapering.