Now every bear will come out and say market going to crash. In my opinion i am bullish and this is the double bottom setup. Looks at TNX it has formed a double top which means it is going to go down which inturn will push equities higher. I have loaded calls .
TNX is reaching it's first target of many in a swelling breakout. Noted are the target levels to watch out for on the way up, ultimately looking to close our long position nearing the 10% line as we fill this bullish box.
Dipping my toes in the treasuries. This began as a look at the 10 Year in the near term. The consensus and overwhelming opinion is the yields at 5% sometime next year. It seems like the yield will be above it's current yield for most of 2024. The above was what seems likely based on some research. The surprise could be a rapid (further) rise in yields during...
🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨 1 & 2Yr #yields are falling pretty decently today. This can be very good short term. However....... It's conceivable BAD in the long term (has been historically) IF the curve normalizes. Current rates 2Yr 5.056 vs 10Yr 4.749 The #Fed rarely does things right. I Wonder. Why is that? Can it be by design? #bonds #stocks TVC:TNX
The data and time data = price the spirals = time I now have 3 very powerful points that call for a MAJOR PEAK this week they all focus 10/4 ,5,10 see pinned tweet to understand . time spirals based on the golden ratio of lunar cycles MY BIBLE
Good Morning! Historically, Since 1967, #interestrates have been MUCH higher, around 2008 they began to go lower. Most individuals never mention this. So what's the BIG DEAL?! The US was growing FASTER & the DEBT is now ASTRONOMICAL! Costs a TON in payments alone! SOMETHING has to give, SOON. Daily we could be setting up for some relief. TVC:TNX
looking for yields to drop from here. I'm targeting 4.696% at minimum which is B leg of the bearish AB-CD pattern. Also there is a double top resistance forming (bottom chart)
We've made a stink about the TVC:TNX & the TVC:DXY for a VERY long time now. WAY OVER 1 year. They're trading congruent & it's a danger. Short term #interestrates have been stuck for a while. Keep looking for a normalization of the #yield curve! = Long term rates higher than short term (getting closer). #dollar #stocks
Keeping an eye on the progress for 10yr yields. Reaching the 1.272 fib, if the DXY weakness persists, this might retrace some back . Previous TLT idea:
G-Morning! Shorter term yields haven't moved much as of late. Demand has slowed down & this coincides with the expectation that the #fed will be cutting rates soon. The 2Yr #yield recently caught up with the strength of the shorter term #InterestRates & looks to be settling in the area just like the others. On the other end the 10 Yr #yield has been...
Borrowing costs are back in focus after Jerome Powell & Co. made some hawkish revisions to next year’s Dot Plot. How high might they go? Today we’ll ponder that question using a long-term monthly chart of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note’s yield. The first pattern is the falling trendline that began way back in 1985. TNX ripped through that level 17 months ago,...
Until recently, value stocks were underperforming, prompting questions about the relevance of the value factor. During the pandemic, growth stocks like Amazon and Tesla thrived, but as economies reopened, value stocks improved. However, the shift to value didn't materialize as both value and growth stocks have experienced alternating periods of strong performance...
We posted an interesting idea September 11th. These are today's notes. --- The TVC:TNX is pumping higher - "Coincidentally" the SAME time frame that the TVC:NDQ TVC:DJI & SP:SPX are breaking down! The 2yr has moved a bit & is testing a breakout level. All shorter time frames from the 2year are STAGNANT! #stocks #dollar #yield
Crude oil went up over 1000% in the 1970s. We now have the most aggressive 8 year moving average for yields in over 50 years. Got commodities? #crudeoil #uranium #gold #silver #inflation #yields #fomc #fed #copper #platinum
It's important to keep and eye on the 10 & 2Yr yields. The inverted #yield curve has huge prediction probability. BUT The strongest aspect of this is when it normalizes. We're not far from that as the10yr has been pumping and the shorter time frames have been pretty stagnant. Now, there's 2 ways this happens. Soft landing, economy slowly recovers OR Lower...
The 10Yr - TVC:TNX and the 2Yr #yield have held pretty steady the last few days. Won't be shocked if it doesn't do much until the DJ:DJI & TVC:NDQ , "coincidentally", break out of the patterns we've spoken about. TVC:DXY losing a lil bit of steam. Is it topping again? The only odd man out is the $VIX. It's closer to the lower end of range. IMO this is...
One seemingly unassuming asset holds a tremendous sway over EVERYTHING: yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond. Often referred to as the "risk-free rate," as it rises, a domino effect is set in motion, triggering adjustments in mortgage rates, credit card interest rates, lending rates, and the valuation of growth stocks. That's why I'm saying this is the most...