Big moves and volatility expansion in Italian BTPs on the recent political turmoil. Bias remains down in the short term AND in the longer term.
If I had to guess (I currently don't trade ITA bonds) over the coming year or so we are likely to see 10yr yields in Italy rise to around 3.8% based on EW pattern and inverted H+S.
Approaching ABCD PO at 2.750 area $IT10Y, $DE10Y
PO at 3.7 -3/85 area $IT10Y, $EURUSD
Italian 10yr yields have just surpassed the 2.61% level. Bond are clearly in a free fall after the earlier breakout below ~100 earlier in May. The first target at 95.21 has just been surpassed, opening the road towards the secondary target at 90.18. Minor counter trend rally’s are allowed up to 98.65 without altering the highly bearish outlook. IGBs look...
Compared to other major European markets, the Italian Government Bonds (IGB) have been quite bearish over the past two/three years. The recovery in early 2017 has not really altered the general trend. Moreover, now that the recovery and ensuing consolidation has petered out, sellers should make a new push lower once support at 99.77 is taken out. Bearish pressure...
Short BTP. It is just question of time to finish the "flag denial" on weekly. Should the 2,25 - 2,35 % yield zone break, BTP mkt would be slaughtered. Look at the upside on the yield chart, and you will understand how bearish it can go: measured target would be around 3,80 %. Again, burn it into your mind: bond markets are in danger rather than...
The spread between German Bunds and France or Italian Goverment Bonds are rising again. On Monday, April 11th 2017 Goldman Sachs recommends a market bet as elections loom in France. "We would expect French bond spreads (and yields) to come under upward pressure if the first round of the Presidential election were to result in a strong showing of...
BTP ( ITALIAN GOVERNMENT BONDS) 10 YEAR MATURITY ON THE FACE OF A FALL FROM WHAT THE CHART SUGGESTS. THIS IS THE YIELD SO THE CASH WILL REFLECT THE OPPOSITE AND I HAVE SET A PENDING SELL AT A LEVEL ALREADY TESTED A FEW TIMES AND THE TICKER THERE IS IT10. PLEASE COMMENT WHAT YOU THINK. ITALY IS IN BIG TROUBLE AND I AM ASTONISHED THAT THE YIELDS ON ITALIAN PAPER ARE...
I closed all long Bund/short BTP spreads earlier last week as weekly chart was reaching key resistance at +200 bps. Weekly haDelta signals possible start of consolidation. Given the daily Heikin-Ashi setup and MACD, it is possible that we'll see more pull back towards 170 bps+ support. At/below 180 bps spread we have to start looking for buy signal again, and...
when stocks crash usually money parks in stocks , we really will not see anyone rushing to Italian government here as the trust levels are just not there, we will get there but not for some time. Retail participation is also at all time lows, with danger on the public side with smart money selling bonds and running to equities . we are looking at government debt...
After some noisy consolidation period in the daily Kumo cloud, Italian BTP is under selling pressure again. Obvious buy signals on both weekly and daily time frames now in favour of German Bund. Wise to keep long Bund vs short BTP, as spread is likely to blow up to minimum 195-200 bps. While holding short German Bobl is probably a good idea too. Note: I need...
This spread trade was one of the best setups in 2016. As we have more signals now that ECB will also normalise rates, it is time to review which one can be a better short: German Bund, or Italian BTP? Fundamentally it is not a question. Italy has a huge and ever increasing debt, absolutely impossible to scale down, especially not until they are EUR zone members....
Weekly: Not much change, bullish consolidation right below key resistance zone of 1,35-1,40 Daily: - Bullish Kumo breakout? Forward Ichimoku structure (both spot and forward components) has bullish bias. Note that both Kijun Sen and 100wma point up! - Minor pull back seems to be over. Couldn't even reach 127-130 bps support. It looks like Mr. Market doesn't...
Weekly: - Ichimoku setup is not yet bullish until the spread level can not break above Kijun. - Resistance zone of 1,36 - 1,41 % marked by Kijun and horizontal lines held again. We saw only a temporary push to 140 bps. - Heikin-Ashi signal suggests loss of momentum, possible start of retracement. - Key support is around 123 bps (means Italy 10y bond yield 1,23 %...
These charts show the Italian 10y BTP bond yield over German 10y Bund yield, as a spread. If ECB can not cause any more spread compression in Italy and in EUR periferia bonds in general, then what would? Simply look at the left side. Weekly chart start to look horrible. I see a huge bowl, which will soon start to boil! Ichimoku setup is turning towards bullish....