QMV2025 trade ideas
CRUDE OIL (CLN2024, USOIL, WTI)... BEARISH!Bias is Bullish.
Daily TF shows 2 weeks of
consolidation supported by a Daily
+FVG. Friday finally saw a "BO" as price
traded through the swing high with
a close above it. Note that price is
now inside the a Daily -FVG.
Potential for a bearish reaction? Yes.
However, I believe it will be short term
if anything.
The 4H gives more detail.
One can see bullish structure in
place that will support a move higher,
potentially to to test 80.21.
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One more shove lower before blast off? The structure on Friday shifted into corrective looking waves, so I won't be surprised by another shove lower into fib support before the next meaningful run higher commences. If it goes up directly from here I will have some head scratching to do.
Thursday Forecast / Into Next weekNo we have Hit the daily FVG I am looking at the lows off
76.91
76.83
To be taken.
In conjunction with my other forecasts this week of being Daily bias Bearish!!
Three Factors Keeping Oil Prices in CheckAT A GLANCE:
Despite ongoing geopolitical conflict, oil prices and volatility are relatively low
A rise in U.S. crude production and weak demand in China are helping oil inventories maintain average levels
Considering many factors like the Russia-Ukraine war, OPEC+ cutting production by 3.6 million barrels per day and conflict in the Middle East, many traders might be surprised to find out that oil prices are only around $82 per barrel and that implied volatility on crude options are trading at relatively low levels below 40%.
Inventories Remain at Average Levels
So why are crude oil prices not higher and more volatile? Part of the answer lies in inventories. Crude and product inventories are right around their seasonally adjusted averages for the past five years. This suggests that at least some cushion exists in the event of a supply disruption.
Given that oil production is about 3.5% lower globally than it would have been without OPEC+ production cuts, how is it possible that oil inventories are still at average levels? There are two reasons. First, a boom in U.S. production has replaced about one third of what OPEC cut.
The second reason is weak demand. China buys about 10 million barrels per day in the international markets, and its economy has been growing much more slowly than it was a few years ago. Slow growth in China often hits oil prices with a lag of about 12 months and may be among the factors preventing a further rise in global crude prices.
Higher Prices Expected?
That said, traders are displaying some signs of nervousness. The skew on CME Group’s WTI CVOL index is quite positive at the moment, suggesting that some traders are buying out of the money call options to protect themselves from the possibility of much higher prices.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
Oil Counter-Trend Longs into Next ShortOil has broken the 15 minute shorts and now are on their way to the All The Way HWB shorts in on the larger 4 hour time frames. You can see how on Friday, the small time frame shorts survived multiple 4 hour candle dives below the 61.8% longs, only to close at or above the 61.8% long. Our 15 minute bias is long and expect it to trade back up to the 82.18-83.42 level, where we sold it in April. Where we can, we will try to be a buyer . . . should have bought those 15 min longs on Friday but it's a hard contract to hold over the weekend. . . .though if there is a direction to hold oil over the weekend, it would be long in the event of a geo-political issue that causes a gap up in oil prices.
Crude Oil Tuesday ForecastI Have in Mind that we will be BEARISH bias mostly this week as we have Tapped into the Premium Daily FVG yesterday and rejected lower.
My two targets shown in the forecast are the arrows.
Daily PDL
Weekly SSL
Now it is important to realise that the market is moving in London and a straight sell into 0830 or 0930est wouldn't be the best move.
Waiting for a retracement and then finding your model to get into the market is what we all strive for and to do couple times a week as intra day traders if the market gives us the opportunity.
Lets see how this plays out !!!
Crude OilThis is not a trading signal, it is my own opinion, if you copy the trade is on your own risk.
Oil has broken the down trend channel , so far there is still move to the down side to retest the previous support, which will probably create triple bottom to indicate for break through to the up trend if it breaks the sideways channel.
Friday retracement?? Forecasting.I am looking at crude to make a retracement today after couple days of down movement its been nice but can;t last forever.
So the arrows display where I think price will go today as a first target and second PDL
Keep it real simple on Fridays you got the weekend coming and you don't want to go into it with a loss or a win stay neutral.
Weakness still on in Crudeoil chart..#CRUDEOIL
Weakness still on in Crudeoil chart...
Support area 5800-5750
Charts for Educational purposes only.
Not a Trading Recommendation.
Strictly follow risk reward and stop loss.
Thanks
V Trade Point
Long position opportunities Price has been in a range for couple weeks, just retraced to 61.8 bullish retracement headed to the top of the range. This is a low risk trade with make buying major coming in to the top of the range, I’ll take two positions and close one at the top of range and wait to see if price breaks above the range finally send position tp will be at 61.8 of bearish retracement of the last impulse. Will update trend line. The range is below 38.2 which is the resistance. If price fails with daily close may consider another short.
On another note Iran’s president passed and the reaction to price was minimal.
Crude OilPair : US Oil
Description :
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
Break of Structure
Head and Shoulder
Bullish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
Demand Zone
Elliott Wave Analysis on Oil (CL) Looks for Short Term WeaknessShort Term Elliott Wave in Light Crude Oil (CL) suggests the decline from 4.12.2024 high is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. Down from 4.12.2024 high, wave 1 ended at 81.56 and wave 2 rally ended at 86.28. Wave 3 lower ended at 76.89. The 1 hour chart below shows the starting point from wave 3. Wave 4 bounce unfolded as an expanded Flat structure. Up from wave 3, wave ((a)) ended at 79.96 and wave ((b)) ended at 76.70. Wave ((c)) higher ended at 80.6 which completed wave 4 in higher degree.
Oil has turned lower in wave 5. Down from wave 4, wave (i) ended at 79.17 and wave (ii) ended at 79.85. Down from there, wave i ended at 78.08 and wave ii ended at 79.5. Expect wave iii to end soon, then it should see 2 more lows to end wave (v) of ((i)). Afterwards, it should rally in wave ((ii)) to correct cycle from 5.20.2024 high in 3, 7, or 11 swing before it resumes lower again. Near term, as far as pivot at 80.6 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
Crude**CrudeOil:**
The forecast for Crude this week is for the price to fall to the 76.43 level, that matches with a lost pivot.
WTI trading plan - 16 May 2024NYMEX:CL1!
Longer term trend is still bearish. But Price is trading above 50 SMA, suggesting a short-term bullishness.
Will attempt for intra-day longs today with stops below the 50 SMA.
BUY CL (CRUDE OIL)BUY CL at the 79.15 or the 78.00 price levels, going back up to the 90.00 to 95.00 price and beyond.
Crude - Testing the waters...We saw our weekly target hit yesterday,
I have a hunch as on the Daily we are constantly going back to the middle of the range that bsl of some form is in the eye of the market before we would want to move down.
I ask myself.... Why would we want to go all the way back (weekly ssl level) if we have been here and raided Sell Stops... If I was the market I would want some breakfast first before I head down for lunch and dinner right?
So for PRE 0930EST im watching to see if price respects the 4hr FVG's.
This will indicate some bsl to be taken.
Overnight trade on crudeQuick after market analysis for possible overnight trade
First trade Is a possible short at the newly formed resistance and I would have my Sl back up again the trend line downward
So entry would be 78.8
Sl would be 79.1
Tp would be 78.3
Here we could counting that when price reach the previous resistance it would have little to no volume to support more upward movements along side the fact that there 2 massive resistances against it.
Here we are counting on price coming back down to previous support where it would take out hopefully both of the 78.05 control of price by volume and if it takes out the 77.65 control of price too with a large wick we can have another long entry there and if price hits our Sl on the first over night trade short we can expect that it would have up and have a breakout past up the resistance to try and hit the 79.8 control of price where we can enter again by waiting for a confirmation of price heading back down to hit the trend line again before bouncing off to 79.80 for a long trade to make back our losses.
All of these trades have a very much probable chances of working out so that is my plan here for tomorrow depending on how things work out.
lets hope no unexpected dump or Pump happens to throw me off here
Crude Oil WednesdaySo as per previous forecast for Crude we are bearish bias.
We have come to the weekly wick ce again and come CME or NY open I am anticipating a retracement that respects the FVG marked in the chart... Sure sometimes price might 'mowhawk' above like sense says.
Be patient and wait for price to make a MSB on at least the 5min before using your entry model to target the INTERNAL SSL as your main objective.
If price wants to get outlandish then the WEEKLY SSL'S are the next POI.
$CL1! trading plan for 15 May 2024Wait for the oscillators to turn bullish on 1H for $NYMEX:CL1!. We are looking at a possible long here.
light oilI expect a corrective movement for oil up to the $74 range.
If the price returns above 82 dollars, this analysis will be invalid.
