#BRN #Buy_limit#4h
#r/r:1/11
#Buy_limit
#First, we wait for the pattern to be completed and enter after confirming the indicator.
#The pattern of 3 valleys is forming.
#There is a new demand area.
#Divergence in the rsi indicator.(RD+)
AFYX2024 trade ideas
🛢️ Oil Bearish possible retrace to 70 USD 🛢️🛢️ Oil Bearish possible retrace to 70 USD. 🛢️
The oil market has been experiencing a bearish trend, with prices potentially retracting to $70 USD. This downward movement can be attributed to a confluence of factors that are exerting pressure on oil prices.
**Economic Headwinds and Oversupply Concerns**
The global economic outlook remains uncertain, with key economies showing signs of slowing growth. This economic deceleration is reducing demand for oil, contributing to the bearish sentiment. Additionally, there is a potential oversupply in the market, as non-OPEC+ countries are expected to increase production, leading to a surplus that could drive prices down¹.
**OPEC+ Policies and Market Stability**
OPEC+ has been implementing production cuts to support market stability and prop up prices. However, these measures have had a limited effect on reversing the bearish trend. The extension of OPEC+ output cuts through the first quarter of 2024 has not significantly bolstered prices, which have continued to decline⁶.
**Geopolitical Tensions and Price Support**
While geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have historically provided some support to oil prices, their impact is currently overshadowed by the dominant economic factors. The market has already priced in these tensions, and they are not enough to counteract the bearish forces at play⁴.
**Technical Analysis and Price Predictions**
Technical indicators suggest that the bearish trend is likely to continue unless a significant reversal occurs. The overall sentiment for US Oil remains bearish below the crucial level of $75.95, with forecasts anticipating testing lower support levels, particularly at $73.98⁵. Analysts predict tighter oil markets in the first half of 2024, with a looming surplus at the beginning of the year driven by seasonally weaker demand. However, the second half of the year may see the market return to a deficit, suggesting that prices could move higher in the latter part of 2024⁶.
**Long-Term Outlook**
Looking beyond the immediate bearish trend, the long-term outlook for oil prices is influenced by several factors, including efficiency standards, the expansion of the electric vehicle (EV) fleet, and the potential fall in demand for fossil fuels. These factors could lead to lower oil prices in the medium to long term. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects average Brent crude prices to be at $61/bbl in 2025 and $73/bbl in 2030⁶.
**Conclusion**
The bearish trend in oil prices, with a possible retraction to $70 USD, reflects the current state of the global oil market, characterized by economic headwinds, potential oversupply, and geopolitical tensions that have a limited impact on prices. While OPEC+ efforts to stabilize the market are ongoing, the effectiveness of these measures remains to be seen. Technical analysis supports the continuation of the bearish trend, with a potential shift in the second half of 2024. The long-term outlook suggests a gradual decrease in oil prices as the world shifts towards more sustainable energy sources and greater efficiency. Investors and market participants will need to closely monitor these developments to navigate the volatile oil market.
🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️🛢️
(1) Oil Prices Forecast: Bearish Outlook Prevails Despite Middle East .... www.fxempire.com
(2) Oil Forecast and Price Predictions 2024, 2025-2030 - CAPEX.com. capex.com
(3) Oil Market Report - March 2024 – Analysis - IEA. www.iea.org
(4) Natural Gas and Oil Analysis: Market Trends Amidst OPEC+ Deliberations .... www.fxempire.com
(5) . bing.com
(6) Oil Market Report - January 2024 – Analysis - IEA. www.iea.org
(7) Crude Oil - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News - TRADING ECONOMICS. tradingeconomics.com
(8) undefined. www.economies.com
Brent Crude is showing major upside to come to $96.00Ascending Triangle has formed on Brent Crude.
We saw the price continue to knock up the resistance until it broke above.
Price>20 and Price>200
So the target is likely to hit $96.00
When the US Dollar depreciates, it often leads to a rally in Brent Crude prices for several interconnected reasons.
1. Commodity Pricing
Global Benchmark:
Brent Crude is a major global oil benchmark. Oil prices, including Brent Crude, are typically denominated in US dollars on international markets.
So when the US Dollar weakens, oil becomes cheaper for holders of other currencies. This increased affordability can lead to higher demand, pushing prices up.
2. Investment Flows
A weaker dollar drives investors towards commodities like oil as alternative investments, contributing to price rallies.
3. Economic Implications
Dollar depreciation often signals global economic growth, boosting energy consumption and pushing up oil prices.
4. Inflation Expectations
Oil is purchased as a hedge against inflation when the dollar weakens, raising demand and prices for Brent Crude.
5. Energy Sector Investments
A depreciating dollar lowers operational costs in the energy sector outside the US, potentially tightening supply and elevating oil prices.
A Sell on the Rise StrategyFrom a long-term perspective, Oil, in this case, we use the Brent Last Day Financial by NYMEX CME, overall is trending downward!
It would be tempting to initiate a “sell on rise strategy” especially when a long term trend line (in blue) is challenged. The trend line majors the historical highs of Brent (BZ) as well as Crude (CL) since the second all-time-high (ATH) in March 2022.
Diving deeper and a closer look to what's happening in 2024! Brent has been consolidating way too long already! Crude oil touched-and-go, the same immediate resistance, and marked a 4-month high before closing just below $87 per barrel. Meanwhile, from a short-term perspective, it coincides with a broad technical bullish consolidation within a channel formation (Orange lines). All recent higher-highs and higher-lows in 2024 have indicated an uptrend and the current bullish bias was well supported at triple bottom (Purple line) in the last couple of weeks.
Ideally, Oil should consolidate within the wedge formation until a sustained clear breakout. Oil is trading in an overbought territory and reversal should be in cards!
A suggested trade to bet on the stronger challenge downtrend would be to short at 87.50 level and an appropriate stop loss above an immediate significant resistance. Fundamentally still overbought am looking to break the congested trend channel downwards!
Brent Oil futuresI know this is crazy and all but hypothetically this is a "Head and shoulders" pattern. Right shoulder bounced from the level of support. But there is a slight possibility to go through it. If we calculate related levels then we will face great price drop.
BRN - CRUDE OIL Short opportunity📉 Breaking News: BRN Crude Oil Faces Bearish Pressure Amidst Global Uncertainty
Interest Rate Concerns: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller’s recent comments hinting at delayed interest rate cuts have raised concerns about sluggish economic growth. As a result, oil demand is expected to be curbed, impacting BRN crude prices
Pipeline Shortage in Canada: Canadian oil production is poised to hit a record high of 5.3 million barrels daily, straining the country’s pipeline network. This excess supply is contributing to the bearish sentiment.
Remember, the oil market is as volatile as ever, and unexpected twists can sway prices in either direction. Keep an eye on the news and consider diversifying your portfolio to mitigate risks during these uncertain times. 🛢️💸
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always consult with a professional before making investment decisions.
NYMEX Brent: Building up Bearish BiasOil reversed gain quickly after the multifaceted sword chopped whatever little was left of supply-side momentum, keeping Oil prices afloat. The US labor market’s resilience pushed back hopes of potential “FED Monetary easing” until the second half of the year while the budding US banking crisis shook the ground beneath Oil prices.
Technically, Brent tried to sustain an upside rally and breached the 200-day Moving Average of $83 per barrel in January. However, it came crashing down below the short-term upward trend line (black), as the “ceasefire talks” emerged in the Middle East.
So does the end of the Geo-political crisis, mean the beginning of Oil’s turmoil? The optimism of investors has been shaken and it would be unrealistic to ignore the negative sentiment that is setting in. Short-term investors are advised to follow the “Sell on rise strategy”, whenever Brent tries to hover around 200-Day Moving Average.
Currently, oil markets are valuing prices more on demand-side concerns rather than fears of conflict in the oil-rich Middle East. Brent is falling below the long-term triangle formation, and if the bearish trend continues, it could easily test the long-term support of $70-72 per barrel zone. A slight increase in banking stability threat could trigger massive offload in long positions. Unless OPEC+ comes to Oil’s rescue, price projections seem bleak.
We prefer the below trade setup:
- Entry: Short around 200 moving average at 83.50
- Target: 77.00
- Stop loss buy for short positions at 86.20
How to identify high quality Supply and Demand zonesSupply and demand zones are powerful tools to find high probability trades. If they are used in the correct context they offer a high win rate and a very controled risk. These are some of the characteristics that high quality zones have:
•When a good zone is being created in real time you will watch that price pushes down/up with aggressive price action and follow through after the basing candle. Heavy volume on the development and candle closing at its highs are also good indicators.
•A high quality supply/demand zone is the one that creates new lows/highs. That means that it was able to push below/above the prior low/high.
•In short time frames, shorter than 1 hour, you would probably find good supply and demand zones to have a continuation of the trend. For example, if a Future is in an uptrend pay attention to the demands that are created in that trend and then when price pulls back to it look at the price action in the zone. Have in mind that in uptrends, demand zones are reliable and supply zones have a much lower probability of working. The opposite scenario happens in downtrends were supply zones are higher probability and demand zones should be avoided.
•In higher time frames, a very strong supply or demand zone could be an area for a change of structure (from an uptrend to a downtrend for example).
•A good indicator of a reliable supply/demand zone is when price pulls back to it and the candle has a strong rejection as it touches the zone, meaning an upper/lower wick is created below/above the zone. volume is developing with no follow through (orders hitting strong ask/bid in the tape) and the candle does not close inside the zone.
•Speed heading into the zone is also relevant, a high speed drop heading in to a demand zone is a good area to trap late sellers.
•If for example FX:EURUSD has a demand zone and TVC:DXY has a supply zone or a resistance level and both are having retracements from their trend, that could be a good opportunity to go long and also if price action gives an extra confirmation. This means that confluence is key for a high probability trade when using supply and demand zones.
• Use the concept of relative strength/weakness when using confluence with other charts.
Example: A 2 hour demand zone in Brent Futures $NYMEX:BZ1!. Notice how the red candle that reaches the zone is a strong one with higher volume and is not able to close inside the zone, It prints a lower wick and closes above it giving the demand zone a good price action confirmation.
Brent Oil Dips Below $73/Barrel on WednesdayBrent oil prices fell below $73 per barrel during early Wednesday trading, carrying the momentum of the previous session and increasing losses to more than 10% this month. The price of the barrel has been in decline, weighed on by worries over future demand. This sentiment was exacerbated by yesterday’s release of US inflation figures, which remained above the ideal levels and made it more likely for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer, with oil consumption likely to suffer as a consequence. Against this background, today’s Fed monetary policy decision may lead to further losses if the central bank insists on adopting a hawkish stance, talking down the chances of a rate cut within the next six months.
Ricardo Evangelista – Senior Analyst, ActivTrades
Oil Trade: Sell All as mentioned in the chart. RR of 1:1
There is a TL breakout and RSI also showing a sell bias.
Oil fundamentals and OPEC indecisiveness leading to oil glut.
BRENT TO 78.25$Brent oil is going down to 78.25$ after bullish turn few days ago.
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Oil Brent to target 87 - 88 in 2 weeksBrent
on the daily chart, I see a technical signal that BRENT OIL is going up to test 87.
After closing 2 days above 87 or crossing 87.6, the target will be 90 and 92.5
Stop loss 81
Oil price analysis in weekly timeBut black gold
What is 100% clear and certain for me is that there is no seller in the upper price levels and the price level of $130 is empty of heavy sellers and oil has a target of $138.
But until the price reaches 138 dollars, many ups and downs are possible, because the weekly price structure is currently downward and the price has made a PA in the range of 75 dollars.
My event is determined by the fluctuations in the price of the red chart.
In my opinion, inflammation and big events are happening in the world, which we will witness in these years, and these developments have started from the Middle East.
Like a 52 Hz whale whose sound cannot be heard by any other whale. I am watching.
OIL: $66 | a Global Indicator of Economies & Politicswhen oil is above $50 nations are busy producing goods
as the demand for the sweet crude in emerging markets accelerates
the pullback is necessary to maintain cost of production
otherwise it would be expensive for new economies to compete with developed nations
low priced oil means VOLUME play for producers and the middlemen benefits
-
this is also timing for ARAMCO's IPO come 2020 just right to showcase the power of leader
$BRN1! -Are you Ready for Winter's Storms ahead ?!- The most recent conflict on the Middle East between Israel and Palestine(Hamas)
has caused TVC:GOLD and Brent Crude Oil (futures) ICEEUR:BRN1! price to jump 4% .
This increase risk on Geo-Political spectrum is messing up with our Short in ICEEUR:BRN1! .
Short Call idea was shared on bingX copy-trade community where 2.000 people saw the Short trade opportunity.
Congratulations to those who took action.
(Calm before Winter's Storm Idea;
Russia & Saudi Arabia two of the largest World's Oil Producers steady keeping production cuts)
We have already partially taken profits off our trade before conflicts occurrence,
leaving the position opened by aiming at full TP profits at Golden Zone
(which may not be reached now due to the conflict)
*** NOTE
This is not Financial Advice !
Please do your own research with your own diligence and
consult your own Financial Advisor
before partaking on any trading activity
with your hard earned money based solely on this Idea.
Ideas being released are published for my own trading speculation and
journaling needed to be clear on different asset classes price action.
Oil HuntingWe are on a bull wave that started somewhere around 72.5. I have en eye on the dates of 12 and 30 to 31 with an interest in the type of candlesticks that will be formed. I also marked 3 price levels in case any candlestick shadows will appear near them.
The main question should be: where will this bullish wave end? or when. If it's not the end, is there an opportunity to jump on it?
Trading on the daily chart is simple but not easy. It is very hard to position yourself in the right direction. Going against the previous daily candle, or just following the direction of it. Choppy weeks or months do not provide much profit potential for the daily chart traders, unless there is volatility and their trading strategy has a mathematical advantage or luck.
In order to compute and be aware of your presumed mathematical advantage one must use math, statistics, back testing, in order to figure the whole picture out. The picture that offers the perspective of contextualisation into the grand scheme of large numbers. Which is the main story that will show you if you can make money or not in the long run. Why would you even trade without such a complete picture backed by numbers? Some say this would be just gambling. Others believe in luck or instinct or fate. But if the future is already set in stone then so is our performance as traders in the future. Knowing the future doesn't mean that you can change the future. You are already a part of it. A piece of the puzzle. Just like this snapshot with lines that are waiting for price action. Japanese Candlesticks. Patterns. Shadows of the future. A good candlestick shadow to trade is the one that is being left behind by the market. Down shadow before the price goes up. Up shadow before the price goes down. Hard to trade these. Unless you get lucky or just have a mathematical advantage.
Oil, S&P, FED Funds & CPIPurple droplets indicate where CPI peaks (pink line) and green arrows point to the corresponding oil peak.
Blue dotted lines measure where oil peaks to allow a reference point to S&P chart. Light blue is FED Funds rate.
UPDATE: Brent Crude is on the way to $100!Since the last update, Brent has broken above the major Falling Wedge...
And it's been on a quiet but consistent trajectory up.
With the USD strengthening and with oil being an inelastic good where price has little effect on demand, means we can expect the price to continue to the first target.
$100!
We are in it for the medium term.
Brent may explode towards $200 a barrel towards the end of 2024Brent Crude: A quick rise of about 10% till September 2023 end & then fall about 40% from high towards year end. Brent may ultimately explode towards $200 towards the end of year 2024.
Brent Crude just gave my first buy signal since March 2022TECHNICALS:
We’re looking at the daily chart of Brent Crude oil.
We can see since March 2022, the price has indeed tanked from $136 down to $71.
During that time, we can see it’s formed a large Descending Triangle pattern.
This is generally a pattern which also forms what looks like a falling triangle.
The selling is stronger than the buying. And this is what brings the price down.
The $71 price however, is the crucial support (floor level) that’s been holding since 2021.
Each time it touches this level, the price tends to bounce back up.
Recently, the Brent Crude price has broken up and out of the Descending Triangle. This tells me the buyers are back and so is demand for the market.
The first target will be half way between the Descending Triangle’s high at $100.
Once we break that psychological $100 mark, I’ll be sure to send you the next prediction for Brent Crude.
FUNDAMENTALS:
It’s been a long and depressing time for the black gold commodity.
We’ve seen the price drop from $135 down to $71.00, over the last two years.
But now, Brent Crude is stealing the limelight.
With the impending oil shortages to the soaring global demand – the trend is finally changing.
In this article, we’ll go through the three main reasons why I expect Brent
Crude to rally back to its $100 mark.
Reason #1: The big shortage of oil
A key driver of why Brent Crude is ready to rally, is due to the recent prediction by the International Energy Administration (IEA).
They have stated there is an imminent oil shortage.
In fact, the IEA has warned the shortage in oil will materialize in the second half of 2023.
We could see demand potentially outpace supply by around 2 million barrels a day.
Also, Saudi Arabia, who is the world’s biggest crude exporter, has said it will prolong its reduction in oil production by 1 million barrels per day into August 2023.
This extension has followed from their sudden decision to reduce an additional million bpd for July.
Then we have Russia and Algeria who will also lower their August output and export levels by 500,000 bpd and 20,000 bpd.
And so, based on this, we’ve seen oil prices rise by over 5.29%.
This scenario leads me to believe oil prices are likely to climb for the following reasons:
1. Supply Disruption
First, with Saudi Arabia deciding to cut production, they are limiting the amount of oil available in the market.
When there is a lower supply, there is a ride in demand. And this puts upward pressure on oil prices.
2. OPEC Influence on other members
We know Saudi Arabia is a leading member of OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries).
And when they make a decision, this often sways other global oil markets to follow along.
This can result in other OPEC+ members to decide to cut their production.
And this lower supply, and increased demand will help increase the price of oil.
Reason #2: Goldman Sachs makes its prediction
Goldman Sachs has also spoken.
It has lifted its forecast for Brent to $95 a barrel, by the end of the year.
And raised its price prediction to $100 for 2024, based on the oil output change.
Oil updateI have the feeling it is not the last time we see the interaction of the market with the drawings. This would mean it would have to go up at some point, or at least do something crazy near the vertical lines. I wait and see... Don't know if the markings should mean anything if this goes up up up
BCO updateNice perfect rebound at the edge of the first arc. On the other side of it I don't know if the arc holds and a rebound is expected. We might see more downwards movement.
