5/14/24 - $dlo - treacherous but long into print, good R/R5/14/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:DLO - tough biz to underwrite, let's get that clear. accusations. new mgmt. in some weird regions (that's the biz fam). competition in some well-established players ayden MT? ... but into the print, i think this is one that's setting up for a miss and realistically the downside here is probably 15-20% and the upside is equal AND it's a name that with the right bottom in, will be a set and forget (forever?) style name. they generate a ton of cash, have a lot of room to grow with key accounts. the 40% pa. growth for next 2 yr is real. nearly 20x PE not cheap for complicated story w/ rough FX geo's... but a beat here puts the bogey not on '24 at 70c but '25 which probably goes to $1.25 and stock will trade at 25-30x on this (like other scaling payments names). assume 25x on 1.25 and that's a $31/shr stock - where it peaked out after the new ceo (from NASDAQ:MELI ) joined. discounted back that's ~$25/shr today at 25% Ke.
basically you're risk-positive money in my estimation to buy under $15 and the closer we get to $10 you can size up large assuming there are no fundamental issues - as could always be the case today as we've learned from many co's reporting.
i've taken a long into the print with about 50% of the size i'd like (overall/ not just to play prints), and i'll size it up hard on a dip all else equal of 10-15% and i'm full position at a down around $10-10.5/shr.
assuming we do see upside (and mind the short interest is reasonably high)... this is a great stock to rent with high IV and a lot of non-believers.